GOVERNMENT TOOLS
CONSULTING
National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for South Australia – South East
Our latest population and housing forecasts for South Australia – South East, which stretches from the Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island to the Victorian border, taking in the Riverland, the Coorong and the Limestone Coast, with towns including Victor Harbor, Murray Bridge, Renmark and Mount Gambier.
- Region
- South Australia – South East · SA4 407
- Councils
- Alexandrina, Berri Barmera, Coorong, Grant, Kangaroo Island, Karoonda East Murray, Kingston (SA), Loxton Waikerie, Mid Murray, Mount Gambier, Murray Bridge, Naracoorte Lucindale, Onkaparinga (part), Renmark Paringa, Robe, Southern Mallee, Tatiara, Unincorporated SA (part), Victor Harbor, Wattle Range, Yankalilla
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 18/12/2025
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Victor Harbor
- Goolwa
- Strathalbyn
- Murray Bridge
- Mannum
- Renmark
- Berri
- Loxton
- Kingscote
- Naracoorte
- Millicent
- Mount Gambier
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateSouth Australia+0.34m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionSouth Australia – South East+31,0549.2% of South Australia's growth2021.2024.3.1.3 · Dec 2025
- Below the region28 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
South Australia's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of South Australia is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
198,222
Population, 2021
229,276
Population, 2046
+31,054
Total growth to 2046
+22,690
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 198,222 | — | 105,431 | — | 16.2 | 57.7 | 26.1 |
| 2026 | 207,606 | +9,384 | 110,544 | +5,113 | 15.1 | 56.4 | 28.5 |
| 2031 | 214,693 | +7,087 | 115,009 | +4,465 | 14.6 | 54.8 | 30.7 |
| 2036 | 221,071 | +6,378 | 119,311 | +4,302 | 14.6 | 53.8 | 31.6 |
| 2041 | 225,564 | +4,493 | 123,690 | +4,379 | 14.8 | 53.5 | 31.6 |
| 2046 | 229,276 | +3,712 | 128,121 | +4,431 | 15.0 | 54.1 | 31.0 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Fleurieu – Kangaroo Island | 31.1% | |
| Limestone Coast | 11.6% | |
| Murray and Mallee | 15.4% | |
| South Australia – South East total | 18.3% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 340 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gifford Hill Sp First Stage | Gifford Hill | Greenfield | Approved |
| Gifford Hill Sp First Stage | Gifford Hill | Greenfield | Approved |
| Goolwa Urban - Garp | 46 Banfield Road Goolwa North | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Océane Living Estate - Victor Harbor | 4576 Victor Harbor Road, Victor Harbor Sa 5211 | Greenfield | Marketing |
| Goolwa North | 8 Glendale Grove Goolwa | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 509 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Mount Gambier
- Murray Bridge
- Strathalbyn
- Naracoorte
- Encounter Bay
- Millicent
- Victor Harbor
- Loxton
- Renmark
- Berri
- Bordertown
- Barmera
- Mannum
- Waikerie
- Goolwa
- Port Elliot
- Hayborough
- Goolwa Beach
- McCracken
- Normanville
- + 489 more
Plus 489 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for South Australia – South East
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 340 development sites assessed in this region alone.
500+
organisations across Australia trust Informed Decisions for data and insights
15,000+
suburbs forecast, covering every part of Australia
A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.