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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for South Australia – Outback
Our latest population and housing forecasts for South Australia – Outback, which covers the Eyre Peninsula and South Australia's remote outback, from Port Augusta, Whyalla and Port Lincoln to Ceduna, Roxby Downs and Coober Pedy.
- Region
- South Australia – Outback · SA4 406
- Councils
- Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara, Ceduna, Cleve, Coober Pedy, Elliston, Flinders Ranges, Franklin Harbour, Kimba, Lower Eyre, Maralinga Tjarutja, Port Augusta, Port Lincoln, Roxby Downs, Streaky Bay, Tumby Bay, Unincorporated SA (part), Whyalla, Wudinna
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 27/04/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Port Augusta
- Whyalla
- Port Lincoln
- Tumby Bay
- Cleve
- Kimba
- Streaky Bay
- Ceduna
- Quorn
- Leigh Creek
- Roxby Downs
- Coober Pedy
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateSouth Australia+0.34m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionSouth Australia – Outback+1,5230.5% of South Australia's growth2021.2024.3.1.2 · Apr 2026
- Below the region15 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
South Australia's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of South Australia is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
85,560
Population, 2021
87,083
Population, 2046
+1,523
Total growth to 2046
+3,753
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 85,560 | — | 44,919 | — | 18.9 | 62.8 | 18.3 |
| 2026 | 86,445 | +885 | 45,696 | +777 | 17.4 | 61.8 | 20.7 |
| 2031 | 86,762 | +317 | 46,438 | +742 | 16.3 | 60.8 | 22.9 |
| 2036 | 86,887 | +125 | 47,174 | +736 | 16.3 | 59.7 | 24.0 |
| 2041 | 87,132 | +245 | 47,931 | +757 | 16.8 | 59.1 | 24.0 |
| 2046 | 87,083 | −49 | 48,672 | +741 | 17.0 | 59.7 | 23.3 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Eyre Peninsula and South West | 5.6% | |
| Outback – North and East | 2.6% | |
| South Australia – Outback total | 4.9% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 197 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sullivan Drive Estate - Point Boston | 81 - East Parade Point Boston | Greenfield Slow | Under construction |
| St Andrews Terrace Housing Estate | 84- St Andrews Terrace PORT LINCOLN | Greenfield | Marketing |
| Blancheport Heights Estate - Streaky Bay | 19 - Wharff Street Streaky Bay | Greenfield Slow | Under construction |
| Port Lincoln Waterfront Neighbourhood Zoned | - Stamford Terrace Port Lincoln | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Saint Eyre Estate - Port Augusta West | 161 - Shirley Street Port Augusta West | Greenfield | Under construction |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 300 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Port Lincoln
- Port Augusta
- Whyalla Stuart
- Whyalla Norrie
- Port Augusta West
- Roxby Downs
- Whyalla
- Whyalla Playford
- Stirling North
- Ceduna
- Whyalla Jenkins
- Tumby Bay
- Coober Pedy
- Streaky Bay
- Boston
- Quorn
- Cowell
- Cleve
- Cummins
- Coffin Bay
- + 280 more
Plus 280 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for South Australia – Outback
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 197 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.