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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Perth – South West
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Perth – South West, which runs along the Indian Ocean coast from Fremantle to Rockingham and Singleton, covering the Fremantle, East Fremantle, Melville, Cockburn, Kwinana and Rockingham council areas, plus Garden and Rottnest Islands.
- Region
- Perth – South West · SA4 507
- Councils
- Canning (part), Cockburn, East Fremantle, Fremantle, Kwinana, Melville, Rockingham
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 23/12/2025
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Fremantle
- East Fremantle
- Applecross
- Booragoon
- Murdoch
- Spearwood
- Cockburn Central
- Hammond Park
- Wellard
- Rockingham
- Baldivis
- Rottnest Island
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateWestern Australia+1.18m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionPerth – South West+239,24420.2% of Western Australia's growth2021.2024.3.1.3 · Dec 2025
- Below the region45 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Western Australia's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Western Australia is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
458,974
Population, 2021
698,218
Population, 2046
+239,244
Total growth to 2046
+101,464
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 458,974 | — | 182,962 | — | 19.8 | 65.0 | 15.3 |
| 2026 | 526,712 | +67,738 | 197,511 | +14,549 | 18.4 | 65.4 | 16.2 |
| 2031 | 575,365 | +48,653 | 217,664 | +20,153 | 17.5 | 64.7 | 17.8 |
| 2036 | 618,598 | +43,233 | 239,831 | +22,167 | 17.1 | 63.8 | 19.1 |
| 2041 | 659,357 | +40,759 | 262,238 | +22,407 | 17.2 | 62.8 | 19.9 |
| 2046 | 698,218 | +38,861 | 284,426 | +22,188 | 17.4 | 62.2 | 20.5 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Cockburn | 89.5% | |
| Fremantle | 25.7% | |
| Kwinana | 73.5% | |
| Melville | 55.8% | |
| Rockingham | 81.6% | |
| Perth – South West total | 65.4% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 619 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peel Land-Use Plan - Urban Expansion | 85 Tinson Road BALDIVIS | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Casuarina Central Psp | 37 Landgren Road CASUARINA | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| North East Baldivis District Structure Plan | 5 St Albans Road BALDIVIS | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Cockburn Coast - The Plan | 2 Azelia Road NORTH COOGEE | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| North East Baldivis District Structure Plan: Precinct 1 | 3 Pug Road BALDIVIS | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 84 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Baldivis
- Wellard
- Rockingham
- Port Kennedy
- Secret Harbour
- Waikiki
- Success
- Hamilton Hill
- Spearwood
- Warnbro
- Leeming
- Fremantle
- Kardinya
- Beeliar
- Hammond Park
- Atwell
- Bull Creek
- Applecross
- Mount Pleasant
- East Fremantle
- + 64 more
Plus 64 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Perth – South West
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 619 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.