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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Perth – South East
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Perth – South East, which runs from Victoria Park, South Perth and Belmont in the north through Kalamunda, Cannington and Gosnells to Armadale, Byford and Mundijong in the south.
- Region
- Perth – South East · SA4 506
- Councils
- Armadale, Belmont (part), Canning (part), Gosnells, Kalamunda (part), Murray (part), Serpentine-Jarrahdale, South Perth, Swan (part), Victoria Park
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 20/02/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Victoria Park
- Burswood
- South Perth
- Como
- Belmont
- Kalamunda
- Cannington
- Willetton
- Gosnells
- Armadale
- Byford
- Piara Waters
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateWestern Australia+1.18m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionPerth – South East+275,25423.2% of Western Australia's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Feb 2026
- Below the region41 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Western Australia's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Western Australia is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
549,135
Population, 2021
824,389
Population, 2046
+275,254
Total growth to 2046
+98,672
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 549,135 | — | 214,136 | — | 19.7 | 66.2 | 14.2 |
| 2026 | 624,566 | +75,431 | 226,951 | +12,815 | 18.3 | 66.9 | 14.9 |
| 2031 | 681,254 | +56,688 | 248,229 | +21,278 | 17.3 | 66.6 | 16.1 |
| 2036 | 733,894 | +52,640 | 270,004 | +21,775 | 16.6 | 66.1 | 17.2 |
| 2041 | 780,277 | +46,383 | 291,281 | +21,277 | 16.7 | 65.3 | 18.0 |
| 2046 | 824,389 | +44,112 | 312,808 | +21,527 | 16.8 | 64.6 | 18.6 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Armadale | 69.2% | |
| Belmont – Victoria Park | 34.8% | |
| Canning | 34.4% | |
| Gosnells | 63.7% | |
| Kalamunda | 63.0% | |
| Serpentine – Jarrahdale | 37.4% | |
| South Perth | 44.7% | |
| Perth – South East total | 47.0% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 745 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beckenham Station Precinct Structure Plan | 68 Bickley Road Beckenham | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Wa Land Supply - Long Term | Gosnells | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Wa Land Supply - Long Term | Gosnells | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| High Wycombe South Residential Precinct | 117 Sultana Road High Wycombe | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Whitby Town - Whitby | 1466 - South Western Highway Whitby | Greenfield | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 90 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Canning Vale
- Thornlie
- Byford
- Gosnells
- Willetton
- Piara Waters
- Southern River
- Como
- Forrestfield
- South Perth
- Armadale
- Maddington
- Harrisdale
- High Wycombe
- Rivervale
- Seville Grove
- East Victoria Park
- Kelmscott
- Victoria Park
- Bentley
- + 70 more
Plus 70 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Perth – South East
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 745 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.