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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Perth – North West
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Perth – North West, which covers the north-western suburbs of metropolitan Perth, from Stirling north to Two Rocks, taking in the Joondalup and Wanneroo council areas and part of Stirling.
- Region
- Perth – North West · SA4 505
- Councils
- Cambridge (part), Joondalup, Stirling (part), Swan (part), Vincent (part), Wanneroo
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 22/04/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Scarborough
- Osborne Park
- Mirrabooka
- Karrinyup
- Hillarys
- Joondalup
- Wanneroo
- Clarkson
- Butler
- Alkimos
- Yanchep
- Two Rocks
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateWestern Australia+1.18m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionPerth – North West+260,78522.0% of Western Australia's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Apr 2026
- Below the region46 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Western Australia's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Western Australia is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
596,988
Population, 2021
857,773
Population, 2046
+260,785
Total growth to 2046
+114,444
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 596,988 | — | 233,500 | — | 19.5 | 65.3 | 15.2 |
| 2026 | 668,985 | +71,997 | 247,839 | +14,339 | 18.0 | 65.5 | 16.5 |
| 2031 | 715,805 | +46,820 | 272,403 | +24,564 | 16.9 | 64.7 | 18.4 |
| 2036 | 763,535 | +47,730 | 297,579 | +25,176 | 16.2 | 63.9 | 19.9 |
| 2041 | 811,935 | +48,400 | 323,361 | +25,782 | 16.1 | 63.0 | 20.9 |
| 2046 | 857,773 | +45,838 | 347,944 | +24,583 | 16.2 | 62.2 | 21.6 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Joondalup | 56.7% | |
| Stirling | 36.7% | |
| Wanneroo | 60.3% | |
| Perth – North West total | 56.4% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 590 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carabooda District Structure Plan | 53 - Wesco Road Nowergup | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Carabooda District Structure Plan | 44 - Greenlees Way Carabooda | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Yanchep-Two Rocks District Structure Plan | Two Rocks | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| East Wanneroo District Structure Plan - Precinct 8 | 26 - Pinelake Trail Mariginiup | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| East Wanneroo District Structure Plan - Precinct 10 | Carabooda - Pinjar | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 84 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Dianella
- Scarborough
- Landsdale
- Duncraig
- Alkimos
- Clarkson
- Yanchep
- Balga
- Butler
- Nollamara
- Banksia Grove
- Yokine
- Kingsley
- Wanneroo
- Balcatta
- Hillarys
- Stirling
- Marangaroo
- Karrinyup
- Innaloo
- + 64 more
Plus 64 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Perth – North West
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 590 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.