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Population and housing forecast for Perth – North East
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Perth – North East, which covers the Swan Valley and nearby suburbs, taking in Bassendean, Mundaring and parts of Swan and Bayswater councils, from Morley, Maylands and Midland out to Ellenbrook, Bullsbrook and Mundaring.
- Region
- Perth – North East · SA4 504
- Councils
- Bassendean, Bayswater (part), Belmont (part), Kalamunda (part), Mundaring, Swan (part)
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 23/10/2025
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Maylands
- Bayswater
- Morley
- Bassendean
- Guildford
- Midland
- Ellenbrook
- Aveley
- Bullsbrook
- Swan View
- Glen Forrest
- Mundaring
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateWestern Australia+1.18m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionPerth – North East+132,45911.2% of Western Australia's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Oct 2025
- Below the region28 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Western Australia's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Western Australia is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
286,691
Population, 2021
419,150
Population, 2046
+132,459
Total growth to 2046
+49,736
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 286,691 | — | 112,711 | — | 19.5 | 66.3 | 14.2 |
| 2026 | 326,682 | +39,991 | 122,470 | +9,759 | 18.4 | 66.5 | 15.0 |
| 2031 | 352,560 | +25,878 | 132,684 | +10,214 | 17.9 | 65.4 | 16.7 |
| 2036 | 376,569 | +24,009 | 142,805 | +10,121 | 17.4 | 64.5 | 18.1 |
| 2041 | 398,392 | +21,823 | 152,624 | +9,819 | 17.4 | 63.7 | 18.8 |
| 2046 | 419,150 | +20,758 | 162,447 | +9,823 | 17.5 | 63.2 | 19.4 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Bayswater – Bassendean | 23.0% | |
| Mundaring | 50.3% | |
| Swan | 59.9% | |
| Perth – North East total | 53.4% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 382 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Ellenbrook East Phase 2 & 3 | 60 Sawpit Road Bullsbrook | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Bullsbrook South Phase 1 & 6 | 2428 Great Northern Highway Bullsbrook | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Lexia Triangle - West Ellenbrook Masterplan Village 1 | Whiteman | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Brabham Estate - Peet | Beechboro | Greenfield | Approved |
| Lot 810 Hepburn Ave Urban Expansion Area | 1 Lakefarm Retreat Ballajura | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 73 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Ellenbrook
- Morley
- Ballajura
- Aveley
- Bayswater
- Maylands
- Brabham
- Bassendean
- Beechboro
- Caversham
- Swan View
- Noranda
- Dayton
- Bennett Springs
- Bullsbrook
- Midland
- The Vines
- Bedford
- Henley Brook
- South Guildford
- + 53 more
Plus 53 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Perth – North East
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 382 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.