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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Hobart
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Hobart, which covers Tasmania's capital and the surrounding area of the River Derwent estuary: the cities of Hobart, Glenorchy and Clarence, Brighton and Sorell, and parts of Kingborough and Derwent Valley.
- Region
- Hobart · SA4 601
- Councils
- Brighton, Clarence, Derwent Valley (part), Glamorgan-Spring Bay (part), Glenorchy, Hobart, Huon Valley (part), Kingborough (part), Sorell
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 26/07/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Hobart
- Sandy Bay
- New Town
- Moonah
- Glenorchy
- Bridgewater
- Bellerive
- Howrah
- Rokeby
- Kingston
- Sorell
- New Norfolk
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateTasmania+0.04m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionHobart+19,95755.7% of Tasmania's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Jul 2026
- Below the region35 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Tasmania's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Tasmania is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
250,717
Population, 2021
270,674
Population, 2046
+19,957
Total growth to 2046
+18,575
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 250,717 | — | 106,303 | — | 17.0 | 64.6 | 18.3 |
| 2026 | 257,591 | +6,874 | 111,461 | +5,158 | 15.9 | 63.9 | 20.2 |
| 2031 | 262,425 | +4,834 | 115,673 | +4,212 | 15.1 | 63.3 | 21.6 |
| 2036 | 266,788 | +4,363 | 119,346 | +3,673 | 14.4 | 63.3 | 22.3 |
| 2041 | 269,252 | +2,464 | 122,356 | +3,010 | 14.1 | 63.6 | 22.3 |
| 2046 | 270,674 | +1,422 | 124,878 | +2,522 | 14.0 | 63.9 | 22.1 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 36.8% | |
| Hobart – North East | 44.9% | |
| Hobart – North West | 22.8% | |
| Hobart – South and West | 56.6% | |
| Hobart Inner | 18.7% | |
| Sorell – Dodges Ferry | 9.6% | |
| Hobart total | 25.2% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 559 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dowsing Point Defense Site | Derwent Barracks, Dowsing Point Tas 7010 | Redevelopment | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Skylands Masterplan | Droughty Point Peninsula, Tranmere Tas 7018 | Greenfield | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| Skylands Masterplan | Droughty Point Peninsula, Tranmere Tas 7018 | Greenfield | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| Boyer Road Precinct Plan | 170 Boyer Rd, Bridgewater Tas 7030 | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Sorell Street Development Estate | 23 Sorell St, Bridgewater Tas 7030 | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
Who prepared this forecast
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 121 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Kingston
- Sandy Bay
- Glenorchy
- Howrah
- Claremont
- Blackmans Bay
- New Town
- Lindisfarne
- Lenah Valley
- West Hobart
- New Norfolk
- Rokeby
- South Hobart
- Moonah
- Brighton
- Bellerive
- Bridgewater
- Old Beach
- West Moonah
- Margate
- + 101 more
Plus 101 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Hobart
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 559 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.