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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Darwin
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Darwin, which covers the City of Darwin, Palmerston and Litchfield council areas, including Darwin City, Casuarina, Palmerston City, Howard Springs and Humpty Doo.
- Region
- Darwin · SA4 701
- Councils
- Darwin, Darwin Waterfront Precinct, Litchfield, Palmerston, Unincorporated NT (part)
- Built on
- Earlier national forecast (2021.2021.3)
- Released
- 11/07/2023
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Darwin City
- Larrakeyah
- Fannie Bay
- Parap
- Nightcliff
- Casuarina
- Karama
- Palmerston City
- Rosebery
- Howard Springs
- Humpty Doo
- Berry Springs
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateNorthern Territory+0.05m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462021.2021.x
- You are here: RegionDarwin+42,93980.4% of Northern Territory's growth2021.2021.3.1.2 · Jul 2023
- Below the region44 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
Northern Territory's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of Northern Territory is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
148,801
Population, 2021
191,740
Population, 2046
+42,939
Total growth to 2046
+16,841
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 148,801 | — | 58,528 | — | 20.2 | 70.1 | 9.8 |
| 2026 | 157,351 | +8,550 | 61,190 | +2,662 | 20.1 | 68.7 | 11.2 |
| 2031 | 166,639 | +9,288 | 64,848 | +3,658 | 19.8 | 67.9 | 12.3 |
| 2036 | 175,191 | +8,552 | 68,399 | +3,551 | 19.5 | 67.4 | 13.0 |
| 2041 | 183,504 | +8,313 | 71,884 | +3,485 | 19.0 | 67.7 | 13.3 |
| 2046 | 191,740 | +8,236 | 75,369 | +3,485 | 18.8 | 67.6 | 13.7 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Darwin City | 55.7% | |
| Darwin Suburbs | 96.8% | |
| Litchfield | 16.8% | |
| Palmerston | 95.7% | |
| Darwin total | 35.7% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 140 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holtze Greenfield Development Plan | 213 Taylor Road HOLTZE | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Weddell Growth Area | 30 Keleson Road NOONAMAH | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Harbourside Precinct Darwin | 3 Frances Bay Drive DARWIN CITY | Apartments | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Future Development Zone | 577 Lee Point Road LEE POINT | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Berrimah potential development | Berrimah | Greenfield | Under-utilised (low density) |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 101 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Darwin City
- Zuccoli
- Karama
- Leanyer
- Humpty Doo
- Stuart Park
- Rosebery
- Larrakeyah
- Nightcliff
- Muirhead
- Durack
- Howard Springs
- Rapid Creek
- Woodroffe
- Gray
- Coconut Grove
- Bakewell
- Moulden
- Malak
- Parap
- + 81 more
Plus 81 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Darwin
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 140 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.