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National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Barossa – Yorke – Mid North
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Barossa – Yorke – Mid North, which covers the Yorke Peninsula, the Barossa and the Mid North of South Australia, including the towns of Kadina, Moonta, Wallaroo, Port Pirie, Clare, Nuriootpa and Tanunda.
- Region
- Barossa – Yorke – Mid North · SA4 405
- Councils
- Adelaide Plains (part), Barossa (part), Barunga West, Clare and Gilbert Valleys, Copper Coast, Goyder, Light (part), Mount Remarkable, Northern Areas, Orroroo Carrieton, Peterborough, Port Pirie, Unincorporated SA (part), Wakefield, Yorke Peninsula
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 31/03/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Kadina
- Moonta
- Wallaroo
- Yorketown
- Port Pirie
- Clare
- Jamestown
- Balaklava
- Kapunda
- Nuriootpa
- Tanunda
- Angaston
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateSouth Australia+0.34m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionBarossa – Yorke – Mid North+15,9284.7% of South Australia's growth2021.2024.3.1.1 · Mar 2026
- Below the region19 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
South Australia's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of South Australia is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
116,947
Population, 2021
132,875
Population, 2046
+15,928
Total growth to 2046
+12,984
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 116,947 | — | 62,750 | — | 17.0 | 57.7 | 25.3 |
| 2026 | 122,059 | +5,112 | 65,262 | +2,512 | 15.5 | 56.5 | 27.9 |
| 2031 | 125,956 | +3,897 | 68,053 | +2,791 | 14.6 | 55.1 | 30.3 |
| 2036 | 128,673 | +2,717 | 70,784 | +2,731 | 14.5 | 54.1 | 31.4 |
| 2041 | 130,875 | +2,202 | 73,277 | +2,493 | 14.8 | 53.8 | 31.4 |
| 2046 | 132,875 | +2,000 | 75,734 | +2,457 | 14.9 | 54.5 | 30.6 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Barossa | 20.7% | |
| Lower North | 15.3% | |
| Mid North | 11.2% | |
| Yorke Peninsula | 43.1% | |
| Barossa – Yorke – Mid North total | 26.3% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 240 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Dunes Extension - Precincts C1, E, F, G, H | - Retallick Road PORT HUGHES | Greenfield | Approved |
| The Dunes Extension - Precincts M2 & M4 | KOOROONA | Greenfield | Approved |
| Kidman Rise - Later Stages | - Kapunda Street KAPUNDA | Greenfield | Approved |
| Gracewood Estate - Mallala | - Traeger Road MALLALA | Greenfield | Approved |
| Copper Cove Wallaroo Marina | 81- Pommern Way WALLAROO | Greenfield | Under construction |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 402 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Nuriootpa
- Tanunda
- Wallaroo
- Port Pirie South
- Risdon Park
- Clare
- Kapunda
- Williamstown
- Kadina
- Moonta Bay
- Freeling
- Port Pirie West
- Angaston
- Lyndoch
- Risdon Park South
- Balaklava
- Jamestown
- Crystal Brook
- Peterborough
- Port Broughton
- + 382 more
Plus 382 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Barossa – Yorke – Mid North
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 240 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.