GOVERNMENT TOOLS
CONSULTING
National Forecasting Program
Population and housing forecast for Adelaide – South
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Adelaide – South, which covers southern Adelaide, from Glenelg down the coast to Aldinga and Sellicks Beach and east to Blackwood, Belair and McLaren Vale, taking in Marion and Mitcham councils and parts of Holdfast Bay and Onkaparinga.
- Region
- Adelaide – South · SA4 403
- Councils
- Holdfast Bay (part), Marion, Mitcham, Onkaparinga (part), West Torrens (part)
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 20/03/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Glenelg
- Brighton
- Marion
- Mitcham
- Blackwood
- Belair
- Hallett Cove
- Morphett Vale
- Noarlunga Centre
- Christies Beach
- McLaren Vale
- Aldinga Beach
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateSouth Australia+0.34m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionAdelaide – South+50,85115.1% of South Australia's growth2021.2024.3.1.2 · Mar 2026
- Below the region35 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
South Australia's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of South Australia is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
377,999
Population, 2021
428,850
Population, 2046
+50,851
Total growth to 2046
+23,219
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 377,999 | — | 162,810 | — | 17.0 | 62.9 | 20.1 |
| 2026 | 398,365 | +20,366 | 168,767 | +5,957 | 16.2 | 62.4 | 21.4 |
| 2031 | 408,879 | +10,514 | 173,976 | +5,209 | 15.5 | 61.9 | 22.7 |
| 2036 | 417,249 | +8,370 | 178,236 | +4,260 | 15.1 | 61.4 | 23.5 |
| 2041 | 423,601 | +6,352 | 182,158 | +3,922 | 15.0 | 61.2 | 23.8 |
| 2046 | 428,850 | +5,249 | 186,029 | +3,871 | 15.1 | 61.3 | 23.7 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Holdfast Bay | 31.2% | |
| Marion | 32.4% | |
| Mitcham | 52.3% | |
| Onkaparinga | 52.1% | |
| Adelaide – South total | 43.1% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 382 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quinliven Road Estate - Aldinga | Aldinga | Redevelopment | Approved |
| Tonsley Village Townhouses And Apartments (Part) | - Alice Lane TONSLEY | Redevelopment | Under construction |
| Onkaparinga Heights Estate - Onkaparinga Heights | HACKHAM - ONKAPARINGA HILLS | Greenfield | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
| Sunset Estate - Seaford Meadows | 14- Silver Gull Way PORT NOARLUNGA SOUTH | Greenfield | Under construction |
| Port Stanvac Redevelopment | LONSDALE | Apartments | Pre-approved / Lapsed approval |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 112 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Morphett Vale
- Hallett Cove
- Happy Valley
- Woodcroft
- Aldinga Beach
- Aberfoyle Park
- Flagstaff Hill
- Glenelg North
- Sheidow Park
- Warradale
- Seaford Rise
- Christies Beach
- Glengowrie
- Seaford Meadows
- Somerton Park
- Mitchell Park
- Christie Downs
- South Plympton
- Reynella
- Hackham
- + 92 more
Plus 92 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Adelaide – South
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 382 development sites assessed in this region alone.
500+
organisations across Australia trust Informed Decisions for data and insights
15,000+
suburbs forecast, covering every part of Australia
A named forecaster behind every region
Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.