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Population and housing forecast for Adelaide – Central and Hills
Our latest population and housing forecasts for Adelaide – Central and Hills, which covers the City of Adelaide, the inner councils of Unley, Burnside, Norwood Payneham and St Peters, Campbelltown, Walkerville and Prospect, and the Adelaide Hills and Mount Barker council areas.
- Region
- Adelaide – Central and Hills · SA4 401
- Councils
- Adelaide, Adelaide Hills, Burnside, Campbelltown (SA), Mount Barker, Norwood Payneham and St Peters, Prospect, Unley, Walkerville
- Built on
- 2025 national forecast (2021.2024.3)
- Released
- 30/01/2026
- Status
- Current
- Boundaries
- ASGS 2021 Ed. 3
- Horizon
- 2046
- Adelaide
- North Adelaide
- Unley
- Norwood
- Prospect
- Walkerville
- Burnside
- Magill
- Campbelltown
- Stirling
- Hahndorf
- Mount Barker
Where this region sits
- NationAustralia+8.6m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- StateSouth Australia+0.34m to 2046Population growth, 2021 to 20462025 forecast
- You are here: RegionAdelaide – Central and Hills+65,21719.3% of South Australia's growth2021.2024.3.1.3 · Jan 2026
- Below the region24 small areas, all forecastSmall-area forecasts available through Placemaker.
South Australia's share of national growth is set from the national drivers. This region's share of South Australia is built from development assessed on the ground.
The forecast
315,729
Population, 2021
380,946
Population, 2046
+65,217
Total growth to 2046
+36,758
Additional dwellings
Population, dwellings and age structure, five-yearly
| Population | Dwellings | Age structure, % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Change | Total | Change | 0–14 | 15–64 | 65+ |
| 2021 | 315,729 | — | 138,332 | — | 16.1 | 64.3 | 19.6 |
| 2026 | 340,442 | +24,713 | 146,834 | +8,502 | 15.0 | 64.2 | 20.9 |
| 2031 | 355,098 | +14,656 | 154,993 | +8,159 | 14.4 | 63.0 | 22.7 |
| 2036 | 367,070 | +11,972 | 162,200 | +7,207 | 13.9 | 62.1 | 24.0 |
| 2041 | 375,422 | +8,352 | 168,945 | +6,745 | 13.6 | 61.6 | 24.8 |
| 2046 | 380,946 | +5,524 | 175,090 | +6,145 | 13.5 | 61.2 | 25.2 |
What we assess, and where
Different things drive population change at different scales. We form a view at each level, and each level constrains the one below it.
- Nation
- Overseas migration
- Fertility and life expectancy
- Housing completions
- State
- Share of overseas migration
- Interstate migration
- State housing policy
- Region (this page)
- Intrastate migration
- Development pipeline
- Capacity and limiting factors
- Ageing in place
- Suburb and site
- Site-by-site development assessment
- Dwelling type and density
Housing capacity, by area
| Sub-area (SA3) | Area character | Capacity used by 2046 |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide City | 19.0% | |
| Adelaide Hills | 90.9% | |
| Burnside | 29.3% | |
| Campbelltown (SA) | 22.5% | |
| Norwood – Payneham – St Peters | 21.4% | |
| Prospect – Walkerville | 29.5% | |
| Unley | 30.5% | |
| Adelaide – Central and Hills total | 34.0% |
How to read this
Capacity used is the share of an area's assessed dwelling capacity that the forecast draws down by 2046. Assessed capacity is post-census capacity across 529 tracked residential development sites, so it counts what those sites can hold, not every theoretical dwelling a planning control would permit.
The major sites that shape this forecast
| Site | Location | Type | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 189 Hawthorn Road Mount Barker - Future Residential | 160- Hawthorn Road MOUNT BARKER | Greenfield | Structure plan / Under-utilised (med-high density) |
| Aston Hill Estate Future Development | MOUNT BARKER | Greenfield | Approved |
| Aston Hills Estate - Maplewood | - Carnelian Crescent MOUNT BARKER | Greenfield | Under construction |
| Newenham Adelaide Hills Estate | - Newenham Parade MOUNT BARKER | Greenfield | Marketing |
| Glenlea Estate | 7- Red Cedar Parade MOUNT BARKER | Greenfield | Under construction |
Our forecasting team
Places covered by this forecast
The largest of the 166 suburbs and localities in this region. Every one of them is forecast at small-area level, and any combination can be built into a custom catchment through Placemaker.
- Mount Barker
- Adelaide
- Prospect
- Magill
- Athelstone
- Campbelltown
- Rostrevor
- North Adelaide
- Paradise
- Norwood
- Nairne
- Parkside
- Newton
- Fullarton
- Hectorville
- Tranmere
- Unley
- Bridgewater
- Aldgate
- St Peters
- + 146 more
Plus 146 more. Search for any suburb or locality on our forecast analysis page.
Common questions about the forecast for Adelaide – Central and Hills
A credible, independent forecast
Independent of government
Our forecasts are not commissioned by any government, so they give an independent view.
Granular forecasts for custom catchments
Forecast at small-area level, so they can be built up into any catchment you need, such as a school catchment, a retail trade area or a utility service area.
Every region, on one basis
A single national model, not a collection of unconnected local studies.
Assessed site by site
Built on a national development sites layer maintained by our own forecasters. 529 development sites assessed in this region alone.
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Questions about a forecast go to the team who prepared it.
See the forecast for your exact area
Placemaker gives you the population, housing and development forecast for any catchment you draw inside this region, by single year, with the development pipeline behind it.