North West Sydney

Over the forecast period, the Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury SA4 is set to grow by approximately 153,000 persons, from a population of approx. 265,000 in 2021 to 418,000 in 2046. Most areas are expected to add population over the 25 years, with growth sourced from densification projects along the North West metro train line, and from greenfield residential development precincts either currently building or expected to commence soon. Stable populations or even minor losses towards the end of the forecast period can be expected in established suburbs with very limited planned development and naturally declining household sizes.

By 2046, the most populated SA2 in Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury is expected to be Box Hill - Nelson (population exceeding 61,000 in 2046). This represents a sixfold growth of the 2021 population in this area, due to the rapidly-building Box Hill and Gables suburbs. Another SA2 experiencing major population growth over the 25 years is Castle Hill - Central: an area adjoining the Castle Hill Trading Zone, several high density residential development projects have recently been completed and/or are underway, with much of the area intended for densification under precinct plans. The intended apartment developments are anticipated to raise the population to reach 4.5 times the 2021 population to over 34,000 by 2046. Both these SA2s are located within The Hills Shire, which consequently is likely to see a continued growth of its resident population across the full forecast period.

Appetite for sustained residential development in the north west of Castle Hill suburb and the east of Kellyville is currently limited with very little potential identified based on present policies, therefore at this stage these areas are set to lose a small portion of their population (several hundred people) by the end of the forecast period. We will continue to monitor these suburbs closely.

Housing options turn to densification as greenfield capacity starts to run low

The Blacktown SA4 is forecast to reach 500,000 residents in 2033 and 575,653 by 2046, a net gain of 171,478 people and 72,216 additional dwellings from the 2021 base.

The Blacktown SA4 accommodates two distinct population change stories. North of the M7 lie the remaining major greenfield growth fronts of Marsden Park in the west, Schofields West in the centre, and Riverstone and Schofields East in the east. Primarily, they comprise low-density housing potential, with high density concentrating around the Schofields and Tallawong metro stations. There are two major residential precincts still to be released (Marsden Park North and West Schofields), which alongside the recently confirmed Riverstone East Stage 3 would form the bulk of the remaining low-density greenfield capacity in the SA4. We use a significant amount of that capacity in our forecasts to 2046, with only sections of the higher density Schofields area remaining unutilised. It is anticipated that collectively, these areas experience major population growth in line with the completion of dwellings.

"Unlike the greenfield areas up north, the established suburbs face the real test of developer appetite for medium and high density builds at some distance from the CBD."

Oliver Bowering, Senior Forecast Consultant, National Forecasting Program

The other side of the Blacktown SA4, south of the M7, is the established suburbia in and around Blacktown city. These suburbs are linked via a metro line with key stations of Toongabbie, Seven Hills, Blacktown, Doonside, Rooty Hill and Mount Druitt. They are subject to the State government's low and mid-rise housing policy, with the Blacktown Council proposing further upzoning in their Mount Druitt to Toongabbie Corridor Strategy Draft Structure Plan. The two policies have released a significant quantity of housing supply potential across the area. Significant investment has been made by local and state government to support continued interest in densification around the Blacktown city itself, but uptake around the smaller stations of Doonside and Rooty Hill is not immediately obvious, and as such we remain conservative with population allocations here. We will continue to monitor the progression of approved applications to construction stage in these areas to evaluate any change in levels of demand.

Growth in the Sydney Outer West - Blue Mountains region is mainly centred around higher density precincts along the main western railway and around the greenfield releases of the Glenmore Park estate and, from the 2030s onwards, Orchard Hills.

Over the forecast period, the Sydney Outer West - Blue Mountains region is set to grow by 80,300 persons between 2021 and 2046, from a population of approximately 334,000 to 414,800. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 0.9% over the period. The majority of this growth will occur within Penrith City along the main western railway during the initial years of the forecast, representing higher density development in Penrith, Werrington and St Marys, and greenfield development in Mulgoa (the latest stages of the Glenmore Park development). The latter stages of the forecast see the development of greenfield sites in the locality of Orchard Hills.

The SA2 area with the greatest amount of population growth is Mulgoa - Luddenham - Orchard Hills with the extension to the existing Glenmore Park estate, which will contribute approximately 2,900 dwellings, and later, the greenfield within Orchard Hills with a total capacity of approximately 12,000 dwellings, of which approximately 50% will be developed over the forecast period. It is anticipated this represents a compound annual growth rate in population of 4.8%.

Within the urban corridor, it is expected that St Marys - North St Marys will grow by 15,100 persons over the period, representing an annual growth rate in population of 2.53% to a total of 32,600. Kingswood - Werrington is forecast to grow by 13,200 (at an annual rate of 1.72%) and Penrith by 12,000 persons (an annual rate of 2%). This growth is predominantly due to redevelopment of land at higher densities, particularly around stations and Western Sydney University. 

In contrast, the areas within the Blue Mountains LGA are likely to see a decline in population of around 2,300 persons to 2046. This is because of the limited development opportunities available and the ageing of the existing population (with younger persons leaving home, and the area attracting retirees). Other rural areas within the Hawkesbury LGA (Windsor - Bligh Park and Richmond - Clarendon) and Yarramundi - Londonderry (within the Penrith LGA), are forecast to remain stable, with little change to population. Any growth is likely to be concentrated within the townships.

The former growth area of Glenmore Park - Regentville will decline over the period, owing to young persons moving out of the area (perhaps to access the further Glenmore Park estate development in Mulgoa) and the current population ageing over the forecast period. This will also be experienced in Jordan Springs - Llandilo in the second half of the forecast period, once the area is fully developed and the population has aged.

New South Wales is forecast to add over 2.1 million people by 2046. The North West Sydney region contributes about 18.1% of this growth.

Read our forecast results and analysis for New South Wales to learn more about how the different drivers of population change affect the distribution of growth throughout the state.

The population forecast for New South Wales

The following forecast information is for the entire North West Sydney region (SA4s 115, 116 and 124). These figures are from version 5.2.0 of the National Forecasting Program. More detailed breakdowns by LGA, suburb or custom catchment are available on request.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.