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National Forecast Program
The population forecast for New South Wales
The population and housing forecast for New South Wales
Published: September 2025
Version: 5.2.0
Read forecast analysis and insights for New South Wales from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.
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See the National Forecasting Program in action in our Population Forecast online tool, or get in touch.
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Government Toolkit
Our Government Toolkit gives users access to the proprietary datasets maintained by .id through a suite of intuitive online tools.
See the National Forecasting Program in action in our Population Forecast online tool, or get in touch.
Government Toolkit
Our Government Toolkit gives users access to the proprietary datasets maintained by .id through a suite of intuitive online tools.
See the National Forecasting Program in action in our Population Forecast online tool, or get in touch.
About the New South Wales State Forecasts
- NSW saw a halt in population growth in 2020 and 2021, which was then quickly reversed with large increases seen in 2023 and 2024. This growth subsides through the forecast period. Net Overseas Migration and Net Interstate Migration return to long-term averages, and fertility decreases.
- Traditionally, NSW has Net Interstate Migration losses, particularly to QLD. This trend is expected to continue through the forecast. These losses are stemmed by Net Overseas Migration to the State, which stays on top as having the largest inflows of NOM of all States.
- As greenfield land in the North West of Sydney is almost fully utilised, the focus of growth shifts to the South West. This is bolstered by large-scale investment surrounding the Western Sydney Airport.
- Regional NSW is a mixed bag, with areas along the coast continuing to be popular for sea changers and retirees, and inland towns being a more affordable alternative to the coast and Sydney.
Key Considerations
- This forecast uses the 2022 to 2024 Regional Estimated Population release in 2025 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
- We have considered the expansion of the Sydney Metro to Bankstown, West, and Western Sydney Airport. This includes the associated precincts and uplift of densities in the surrounding areas. This large-scale uplift in densities has already been evident along the Metro North West line.
- We take into account the introduction of new planning laws around designated TOD and LMR precincts, which streamline the design, application, and development process for medium and high-rise developments. This may not have a large-scale impact on the distribution between regions, but rather on distribution within the region itself.
- Regional areas in NSW are continuing to see investment in green energy through Renewable Energy Zones. There is also the assumption that there will be large-scale investment into Port Kembla, transitioning to a hub for green energy and sustainable innovation.
The team
Our forecasting team
Prepared and presented by experts from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.
Johnny Barnard
Forecaster
Andrew Hedge
Senior Marketing Manager
Richard Thornton
Product Manager Forecast
Forecast results
The following forecast information presents the numbers for New South Wales.
Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.
| 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast Population | 8,097,062 | 8,701,033 | 142,245 | 9,555,116 | 9,924,182 | 10,265,945 |
| Change (five year) | - | 603,971 | 441,213 | 412,871 | 369,066 | 341,763 |
| Average Annual Change (%) | - | 1.45% | 0.99% | 0.89% | 0.76% | 0.68% |
| Forecast Dwellings | 3,357,787 | 3,552,573 | 3,768,980 | 3,991,926 | 4,211,087 | 4,428,429 |
| Change (five year | - | 194,786 | 216,407 | 222,946 | 219,160 | 217,343 |
| Average Annual Change (%) | - | 1.13% | 1.19% | 1.16% | 1.07% | 1.01% |
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