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Population forecasts Supporting strategic property decisions in Australian retail
Key highlights
The clients
We work with Australian retailers and retail property professionals responsible for the full spectrum of property decisions - from network planning and site selection to property acquisition, development applications, construction management and project delivery.
The challenge
Property decisions represent some of the largest capital investments retailers make. With planning approvals and construction typically taking over two years, and significant capital commitments involved, getting location or timing wrong can impact performance for years to come.
The highlights
Our comprehensive population and housing forecasts provide retailers with an independent, detailed view of future revenue potential to help them evaluate specific locations. This evidence base supports strategic decision-making and strengthens negotiations with developers and other stakeholders.
The results
Retail property professionals using our forecasts report improved confidence in investment decisions, stronger negotiating positions, and more accurate, reliable and respected revenue projections for new and existing sites.
In this case study we share how population forecasting helps our clients who work in retail property teams understand the future revenue potential of sites to make better location, timing, and investment structure decisions.
How we help retailers
To calculate the viability of a store location, retailers need to assess the Retail Catchment Value of a current or proposed store location.
This short video explains how we help retailers with this important analysis, which underpins significant investment, location and planning decisions.
The strategic importance of property decisions
Property decisions sit at the heart of retail strategy. Whether building new stores, renovating existing ones, or negotiating leases, these choices lock organisations into long-term commitments. The stakes are particularly high in today's environment, where construction costs have risen dramatically while population growth creates uneven opportunities across different locations.
Understanding revenue potential
For retail property professionals, one critical calculation underlies all property decisions: what is the revenue potential of a given location? This determines the viable investment per square metre - whether that's construction costs, purchase price, or lease terms.
The key assumption in this calculation is the population multiplier - the number of people or households within a store's catchment area. While current population data is readily available, understanding future population is far more challenging. Yet this forecast is essential for calculating potential revenue and therefore the supportable cost per square metre of retail space.
The challenge of growth in a changed market
Australia's population growth creates opportunities, but these vary dramatically across locations. No two places are the same - each has its own growth trajectory, demographic profile, and development patterns. Some areas are experiencing rapid transformation through new development and demographic change, others are stable mature suburbs with gradual evolution, while others are going through generational change as older residents move out and younger families move in.
Understanding these patterns requires specialist knowledge of:
- Demographics (who lives where now)
- Migration patterns (who's moving in and out)
- Current housing stock and planning controls
- Development pipeline (what's being built, where and when)
Our solution: Comprehensive population and housing forecasts
The National Forecasting Program is an independent research program from .id (informed decisions) that gives our clients actionable information about how the population and housing landscape of local areas is forecast to change over the next 25 years.
This information is curated by specialist demographers and based on comprehensive research into the current and future pipeline of housing stock.
- National coverage with local detail
- Consistent forecasts across Australia
- Granular geographic detail
- Ability to match specific catchment areas
- Independent, evidence-based forecasts
- Trusted, impartial projections
- Single-scenario forecasts of most likely outcomes
- Comprehensive monitoring of all factors affecting population change
- Unique development intelligence Underpinning our microgeographic forecasts is our residential development layer - Australia's most comprehensive view of potential future dwelling supply. Our researchers:
- Track upcoming releases advertised by developers
- Analyse satellite imagery to identify projects that have broken ground
- Incorporate known construction activity data
- Monitor property and upcoming development listings across public and proprietary data sources
- Make provisions for future development and infill capacity by analysing cadastre layers and structure plans
- Consider site-specific planning controls
- Incorporate planning and development insights from hundreds of local councils across Australia
- The result is organised by location, dwelling capacity and forecast timing of each development site, informed by order identifiers ranging from speculative supply through to completed housing stock. We then match this potential future housing supply with our population forecasts for each region to create a balanced view of the future.
- Development layer access
- Site-specific development forecasts
- Detailed timing, sequence and capacity information
- Population forecasts
- Comprehensive forecasts underpinned by our development research
- Detailed demographic breakdowns
- Housing forecasts
- Total dwelling change projections
- Based on forecast population growth
- Informed by known and planned development activity
Practical applications for retail property professionals
Our clients use these forecasts to support various property strategies:
- Property acquisition and development
- Evaluate purchases of existing properties
- Assess development opportunities
- Calculate viable construction costs
- Support development applications
- Leasing decisions
- Negotiate lease terms
- Calculate sustainable rent levels
- Evaluate lease renewal options
- Time market entry and exits
- Network planning
- Identify emerging opportunities
- Optimise store networks
- Plan refurbishment timing
- Match store formats to market potential
The value of independent forecasts
Having access to independent, comprehensive forecasts helps retail property professionals in several ways:
- Better decision making
- More accurate revenue projections
- Clearer understanding of growth patterns
- Reduced risk of poor location choices
- Stronger negotiations
- Independent evidence base
- Detailed understanding of local markets
- Clear rationale for investment decisions
- Strategic advantage
- Early identification of opportunities
- Better timing of market entry
- More confident long-term planning
What we've learned from our retail clients
Speaking with our retail clients who work in property teams, this is what they told us about why they value our research:
- Population growth remains fundamental to retail success, but understanding its patterns is increasingly complex
- Different property strategies (ownership, development, leasing) require different approaches to assessment, but all benefit from accurate population forecasting
- Construction cost pressures make accurate revenue forecasting even more critical
- Independent, evidence-based forecasts strengthen negotiations and decision-making
Looking forward
As Australia continues to grow and change, sophisticated demographic analysis becomes increasingly vital for retail property decisions. Success requires balancing cost pressures against growth opportunities, supported by detailed population and development forecasts.
The National Forecasting Program provides retail property professionals with the comprehensive, independent evidence base they need to make confident decisions about their property strategies, optimise their investments, and negotiate effectively with stakeholders.