Regional Victorian independent school: market analysis and enrolment outlook to 2046

A growing catchment doesn’t automatically mean a growing school. The College sits in one of regional Victoria’s fastest-growing areas, but its share of independent secondary enrolments has barely moved in 15 years. Part of the reason is that it has been near capacity, with more demand than places. Part is that competitors have expanded quickly to take up the growth. Separating the two lets the College plan where to grow, and how much room it needs to do it.

The College’s last market analysis was more than a decade old. Since then the region had grown quickly, new schools had opened and existing ones had expanded, families had become more sensitive to fees and the profile of families choosing independent schools had shifted. The College needed an up-to-date view to guide its planning for the next two decades.

The College wanted to understand:

• How has the catchment changed, and what has that meant for the College’s market share?
• Who are the competing schools, how is demand shifting between sectors and how many school-aged children will the catchment have in future?
• Where are the biggest opportunities and risks across the day, boarding and international markets to 2046?

We looked at the day, boarding and international markets together rather than separately, using ABS Census data, ACARA school enrolment data, our small-area population forecasts and the College’s own records. We analysed results down to suburb level, so the College could see where its students come from, where its share is strong or weak and where the school-aged population will grow.

• The catchment has grown strongly. Between 2010 and 2025 the core catchment’s population grew 41 per cent, school-aged children rose 29 per cent and total school enrolments across all sectors rose 50 per cent. Household incomes and education levels are at or above Greater Melbourne benchmarks. The conditions for independent school demand are strong.
• The College’s share has held steady, partly because it has been near capacity. Over the same period, independent secondary enrolments in the catchment grew 6 per cent, while Catholic enrolments grew 26 per cent. Much of that Catholic growth came from one school that opened in 2020 and had more than 1,300 students by 2025. The College’s share has stayed at around 24 per cent since 2009. With waitlists in place, that flat share reflects how many places the College has, not just how much demand there is.
• Enrolments are concentrated where growth is slowing, and thin where growth is coming. The College’s home suburb alone accounts for 23 per cent of its enrolments, while most of the catchment’s 23 suburbs sit at a share of 0 to 2 per cent. The fastest-growing areas are where the College’s share is lowest. One northern growth area is forecast to add more than 4,300 primary-aged children by 2046 but currently sends eight primary students to the College. Meanwhile, several coastal areas where the College is strong face falling numbers of school-aged children as their populations age.
• Growth from population alone will be modest. If the College keeps its current share in each area, combined enrolments are forecast to grow from about 1,595 in 2026 to 1,731 by 2036 and 1,961 by 2046. Because its share in the growth areas is so low, large population gains there add few students. Growing beyond this baseline will depend on reaching into the growth areas, for example through bus route extensions, and on having the places to take more students.

Most of the catchment’s growth over the next two decades will happen in areas where the College has few students and where other schools are already established or planned, including a competitor’s proposed new campus in one of the key growth areas from the late 2020s. Several areas where the College is strong now are likely to decline.

The College’s demand pipeline, drawn from more than 3,000 enquiries and more than 2,000 future-student registrations, comes from the same areas as its current students and relies heavily on word of mouth and family connections. It supports demand where the College is already strong, but it won’t extend its reach into the growth areas on its own.

The boarding program has room to grow in regional centres where the College has few students, and where the barrier is awareness of the school rather than affordability. For international students, the priority is attracting students from beyond its largest source country.

The analysis gives the College an evidence base for planning its next two decades. It can use it to:

• plan capacity alongside demand, so that new places line up with where future students will come from
• focus enrolment and community engagement on the growth areas where the school-aged population is concentrated
• set its competitive position realistically, given the fee gap with lower-cost schools
• prioritise boarding and international growth where the analysis shows room to grow

If your school is in a growing area but not sure how much of that growth it’s capturing, we can show you where your future students will come from and where the risks sit. Get in touch to talk it through.

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