Where are school-aged kids located? Top 10 growing and slowing suburbs

Demographics
Where are school-aged kids located? Top 10 growing and slowing suburbs
Georgia Allan

Georgia Allan

Customer Success Manager

Key Highlights

  • Between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses, Australia experienced an increase of 174,600 school-aged children (5–17 years), equivalent to approximately 300 new schools needed to accommodate this growth.
  • The data highlights the importance of targeted infrastructure development, especially in rapidly growing outer suburbs, to meet the educational needs of increasing school-aged populations.

Between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses, there was an increase of 174,600 school aged kids (5-17 years) across Australia – the equivalent of approximately 300 schools!

 

Where is the largest growth in school aged children?

It’s important to understand where the growth in school aged children is occurring, especially when it comes to planning new schools or expanding existing facilities.

Looking at primary school aged children (5-11 year olds) and secondary school kids (12-17 years), the top 10 growth suburbs from 2011 to 2016 are listed below.

 

Top 10 growth suburbs for Primary school aged children

Primary schoolers (aged 5 to 11) State20112016Change
Cranbourne East Vic91031612251
BaldivisWA 201741622145
Tarneit Vic 248746092122
Truganina Vic113827761638
Parklea – Kellyville Ridge NSW 275043561606
Forrestdale – Harrisdale – Piara Waters WA69821221424
Doreen Vic135127691418
North Lakes – Mango Hill Qld 260839901382
Ellenbrook WA305744171360
Cobbitty – Leppington NSW 63818491211

Top 10 growth suburbs for Secondary school aged kids

Secondary schoolers (12 to 17) State20112016Change
Cranbourne East Vic 56119271366
Baldivis WA142825711143
Parklea – Kellyville Ridge NSW 157825991021
North Lakes – Mango Hill Qld17812766985
Ellenbrook WA 21393099960
Tarneit Vic17902636846
DoreenVic 8841666782
Rouse Hill – Beaumont Hills NSW 17412414673
Cobbitty – Leppington NSW5451209664
Truganina Vic 6621268606

For both primary and secondary school children, we can see significant growth occurring in the growing outer suburbs over the past 5 years.

 

Where are kids on the decline?

For primary school (5-11 year olds) and secondary aged children (12-17 years), here’s the top 10 slowing suburbs in terms of absolute change from 2011 to 2016.

 

Top 10 slowing suburbs for Primary school aged children
 

Primary schoolers (5 to 11) State20112016Change
Taylors Lakes Vic 16911315-376
Mill Park – North Vic 17641404-360
Wollongong – East NSW 792450-342
Rowville – South Vic 1222950-272
Mount Isa Qld 22561991-265
Cabramatta – Lansvale NSW 22992035-264
Hoppers Crossing – North Vic19931747-246
Bidwill – Hebersham – Emerton NSW 24182183-235
Ballajura WA 19951765-230
Auburn – North NSW 1017790-227

Top 10 slowing suburbs for Secondary school aged children

Secondary schoolers (12 to 17) State 20112016Change
Auburn – North NSW 889477-412
Claymore – Eagle Vale – Raby NSW 22741889-385
Orange NSW 17831409-374
Warnbro WA1154796-358
Ballajura WA21441801-343
Hoppers Crossing – North Vic19941653-341
Rowville – Central Vic15511210-341
Menai – Lucas Heights – Woronora NSW 22351898-337
Langwarrin Vic22331897-336
Toowoomba – East Qld 1309981-328

Suburbs that experienced declines in school aged children tend to be outer-suburban and regional areas.

 

What does it all mean? Deciphering the trends

So how can we better understand these areas of growth and decline in school aged population? It’s important to note that changes in population aren’t generally sporadic or unpredictable – they follow certain patterns that can best be explained by what we call the suburb lifecycle. This concept demonstrates that population change follows a cycle rather than a linear trend.

Typically, new areas are settled by young households comprising young couples and young families (with school-aged children or under), with some mature families. As these families grow, the average size of the household increases.

Following this initial rapid development, these households most often ‘age in place’: growing in size while staying in the area. This slowly shifts the demand for services, facilities and dwelling types as households mature.

As the children grow up and move out of home the suburb is left with more ’empty nester’ (two person) households, often living in large family dwellings. If a suburb can’t attract young families back into the area, it becomes increasingly populated by older couples or lone persons, and its population begins to decline with mortality. As an area ages, housing stock is freed up through migration and mortality, enabling families to begin re-populating the area and continue the cycle.

 

The suburb lifecycle

 

Planning for the future

Understanding the lifecycle that suburbs follow is important in helping governments and organisations predict changing demand for services, facilities and dwelling types. Areas that manage to minimise the loss of family-oriented and maintain diverse housing stock that can accommodate a variety of households are more likely to see the process of regeneration occur.

Granular population forecasts can be used to visualise the way these big picture population trends play out locally, providing school planners with an evidence base to help answer strategic questions about where and when to locate schools in the future.

.id work with a variety of education providers from the Catholic Schools Office, Department of Education through to individual independent schools, helping them make large scale investment decisions to ensure schools are located in the right place, at the right time.

 

For more detailed information, read our eBook: Planning education provision in a changing Australia.

 

We work closely with the education providers, helping schools and organisations make important planning decisions that cater to growing or slowing numbers of kids in different areas. We are keen to talk to school planners and decision makers about the way demographic trends are impacting local areas, so come and talk to us at these upcoming events:

.id is a team of population experts, who use a unique combination of online tools and consulting to help organisations decide where and when to locate their facilities and services, to meet the needs of changing populations. Access our free demographic resources here.

 

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