Population growth slows in 2020 but Perth is the fastest growing LGA

Demographics
Population growth slows in 2020 but Perth is the fastest growing LGA
Glenn  Capuano

Glenn Capuano

Customer Success Manager

Population Growth Trends in Australia (2020)

  • In the year ending June 2020, Australia's population grew by 331,500 people (1.3%), a decline from the previous year's 382,000, primarily due to the onset of COVID-19 and the resulting halt in overseas migration.
  • The City of Perth experienced the fastest growth rate among Local Government Areas (LGAs), increasing by 7.1% (2,055 people), surpassing traditionally fast-growing outer suburban areas.
  • LGAs in Perth's south, including Armadale, Kwinana, and Serpentine-Jarrahdale, featured prominently among the top 10 fastest-growing areas, reflecting Western Australia's resilience during the pandemic.
  • Surf Coast Shire in Victoria entered the top 10 fastest-growing LGAs, with a 3.9% increase, possibly influenced by the rise in remote work and the appeal of coastal living during the pandemic.
  • Given that most of the 2019–2020 financial year was unaffected by COVID-19, more significant impacts on population growth are expected in subsequent years, with potential nationwide declines.

Population growth slows in 2020 but Perth is the fastest growing LGA

The ABS has just released the annual population and migration update for all Local Government Areas in Australia: Regional Population (or the publication formerly known as 3218.0 – Regional Population Growth, Australia).

How has COVID-19 impacted population growth in Australia?

This population update for all areas is eagerly awaited every year. It is released in late March and refers to the period ended June of the previous year, in this case June 2020. Anticipation this year was greater than usual, as we know the effects of COVID-19 on population have been profound, mainly through the effective ending of overseas migration in Australia but also through altered internal migration patterns. Fortunately, the number of COVID-related deaths in Australia were comparatively low and have had a negligible effect on our population trends.

Because population is released annually for small areas, however, there isn’t as profound an effect as you might expect. Overseas migration underpins about 60% of Australia’s population growth normally, but it was only halted in March 2020, meaning almost 3/4 of the financial year we’re looking at was “business as usual”. The real effect will come in next year’s figures – 2020/21 – where we are heading for a population decline nationwide.

In the year ended June 2020, Australia grew by 331,500 people, or 1.3% – down from the 382,000 the previous year, but hardly “unprecedented”. The majority of the growth (74% of it) remained in our capital cities, which added 245,300 people, to Regional Australia’s 86,200. Melbourne added 80,000, to Sydney’s 57,000 as their populations edged closer. We had been predicting Melbourne to overtake Sydney by the late 2020s, and by some geographic definitions it already has – but the greater metropolitan areas are still about 200,000 people different, and Melbourne’s growth is likely to be negative in the next year, so it may be a way off yet.

Where did we see significant population growth?

The growth at the LGA level was focused on the fringes of our capitals. Here are the top 10 largest growth areas in 2020/21.

LGA2020 ERP2021 ERPChangeChange %
Brisbane Qld1,253,6471,272,99919,352 1.5%
Gold Coast Qld620,437635,19114,7542.4%
Wyndham Vic270,607283,29412,6874.7%
Casey Vic353,962364,600 10,6383.0%
Moreton Bay Qld469,442479,63910,1972.2%
Blacktown NSW374,372382,8318,4592.3%
Sunshine Coast Qld328,390336,4828,0922.5%
Hume Vic233,545241,1887,643 3.3%
Logan Qld334,353341,9857,6322.3%
Melton Vic164,936172,5007,5644.6%

Population growth slows in 2020 but Perth is the fastest growing LGA

These areas experienced the biggest increases in population numerically. This method tends to favour large LGAs with big populations to begin with; the percentage increases – while all above the national average – aren’t necessarily huge. Brisbane always tops this list as it’s the only LGA in Australia with more than one million people. Five of the top ten are in Queensland, and four are in Victoria.

Fastest growth shows the LGAs with the largest increase as a percentage of the previous year’s population, and is the more usual way of expressing growth.

LGA2020 ERP2021 ERPChangeChange %
Perth WA28,916 30,9712,0557.1%
Camden NSW 101,420107,806 6,3866.3%
Wyndham Vic270,607283,294 12,6874.7%
Melton Vic164,936 172,5007,564 4.6%
Serpentine-Jarrahdale WA32,57433,920 1,3464.1%
Surf Coast Vic33,45734,7711,314 3.9%
Kwinana WA45,118 46,7871,6693.7%
Cardinia Vic112,179 116,1934,014 3.6%
Armadale WA90,843 93,9283,0853.4%
Ipswich Qld222,311 229,8457,5343.4%

Perth sees the fastest population growth

On this measure, the City of Perth overtook perennial fringe growth areas of Wyndham and Camden to be the fastest growing area in Australia. Although it added only about 2,000 people, this was enough on its relatively small central city population to lift it to this level. Along with Armadale, Kwinana and Serpentine-Jarrahdale, all in Perth’s south, it helped WA areas to dominate this list for 2020, reflecting a significant change in fortunes as WA weathers the pandemic with strong border closures, and stems the flow of people heading east after the mining boom ended a few years ago.

Also entering the fastest growing areas list is Surf Coast Shire in Victoria – the only non metropolitan LGA to make it. Almost 4% growth increased from the last few years, and may reflect the attraction of this seachange destination in the pandemic/work from home environment. The next year’s figures will be very interesting for Surf Coast, now the 6th fastest growing area in Australia.

Where did we see significant population decline?

Of course it’s not all growth. In 2019-20, 152 of the nation’s 543 LGAs and unincorporated areas experienced a population decline (down from 177 areas in 2019).

The fastest declines (as a percentage of population) were mainly found in more remote areas with small populations to start with, including Brewarrina NSW (-3.6%), Cobar NSW (-3.4%) and Arukun (Qld) (-3.4%) – but these, although large in percentage terms, were generally declines of less than 100 people.

The greatest numerical declines are:

LGA2020 ERP2021 ERPChange Change %
Brimbank Vic209,568 208,247-1,321 -0.6%
Darwin NT83,01682,030 -986-1.2%
Fairfield NSW211,654210,825-829-0.4%
Kalgoorlie/Boulder WA 29,48529,055 -430-1.5%
Broken Hill NSW17,477 17,269 -208-1.2%
Moree Plains NSW13,260 13,077-183-1.4%
Mosman NSW30,96030,785 -175-0.6%
Boroondara Vic183,197 183,023 -174-0.1%
Port Augusta SA13,86013,697-163-1.2%
Whyalla SA21,66321,506-157-0.7%

How is COVID-19 driving population decline?

This is where we can start to see pandemic effects. In recent years, everywhere in capital cities has been growing, due to the large influx of overseas migrants. Now, we start to see significant population declines in some areas of our capital cities. Notably topping this list – the City of Brimbank, Victoria, which is one of the most culturally diverse areas in the nation, and a first port of call for migrants. It has had outward migration to Melton of established families seeking new housing for quite a while but in recent years has made up for this with migration from overseas. With that ending late in the financial year, Brimbank’s population was the only one in the nation to lose more than 1,000 people. Fairfield in NSW is losing population after many years of growth for precisely the same reasons – much of its population was supported by refugee intake, which has ceased for the moment. Darwin has been declining for a while, due to the end of offshore gas projects in the NT. Other capital city areas in the list are Boroondara, Victoria, an affluent area but very reliant on international students, and Mosman NSW, one of the most affluent areas in the country.

The remainder of this top 10 list would be more familiar from previous years and represent older regional communities which have had structural population decline for some time.

Stable populations

And the prize for the most stable population? There were actually a record 11 LGAs whose population was exactly the same in 2020 as in 2019 – the largest of these was Edward River Council, (Deniliquin, NSW), which had 9,083 people both years.

Building a better picture of COVID-19 impacts

While the immediate headlines seem to be business as usual, there are a few COVID-19 fingerprints (appropriately hand sanitised) on this population update. It’s the next year’s figures which will tell a really important story, remembering that at June 2020, this data only reflects the first 4 months of the pandemic.

We are working to get these population updates into all our Community Profile (profile.id ) and Economic Profile (economy.id) sites as soon as possible, and assessing the impact of this new information on our population forecasts.. This will show not just population change for your LGA, but all the small areas, suburbs, districts and towns as well. And, of course, it’s a Census year too! 2021 Census promises to show some of the most dramatic shifts in demographics in a generation. Census night is August 10th, and we’ll be covering that before and after – watch this space!

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