Can Your Local Workforce Sustain Future Aged Care Demand?

The report combines three elements to understand workforce pressure across Australia:

• Exposure to retirement as current workers age,
• Depth of the local labour force, and
• Housing affordability for workers. 

When these are viewed together, a pattern emerges in which different types of regions face distinct workforce risks.

Regional coastal retirement hotspots are one of the most exposed groups. These regions are experiencing some of the fastest growth in older populations, often from an already high base. At the same time, they tend to have relatively shallow labour pools and housing markets that have become more expensive over time. 

High-demand, high-cost metro margins sit on the edges of major capital cities. Here, the need for aged care is rising as populations age and grow, but housing costs have pushed many workers further from where older people live. Providers in these areas are finding it harder to retain staff, with vacancies persisting and a greater reliance on agency workers. The geography of housing affordability means that even when demand is close at hand, the people needed to deliver care are increasingly distant.

Fast-growing outer suburbs are absorbing large numbers of new residents, including young families, but the growth in health and aged care infrastructure is not keeping pace. Regions such as Ipswich, Sydney’s south-west and Melbourne’s north-west illustrate this pattern. Population growth outstrips the development of hospitals, community health and aged care services, and local workforces are asked to stretch across more clients and larger catchments.

Moderate-risk regions, including some inland regional centres and outer metropolitan areas, currently show more manageable workforce conditions. They benefit from relatively affordable housing and lower immediate retirement exposure among workers. However, the report cautions that these areas could face tightening conditions if national workforce shortages deepen, as they are vulnerable to competition from better-resourced or more attractive labour markets.

Regional cities near capital cities, such as Greater Geelong, Greater Newcastle, Greater Wollongong and the Sunshine Coast, stand out as comparatively resilient. They often have larger and more diversified health care sectors, attract younger workers and remain more affordable than the largest metropolitan markets. Their proximity to capital cities provides access to deeper labour pools and specialist services, making it easier to support flexible staffing models.

Remote and inland regions face a different, more structural challenge. These areas have very limited workforce depth, smaller local economies and weaker access to hospitals and specialist services. They are also more exposed to fluctuations in housing and employment. Without targeted planning and investment, they risk persistent staffing shortages and shrinking service coverage for older residents, even when demand is clear.