Perth - South West

Three key players in the Perth - South West region's population and dwelling growth

The Perth - South West region's population and dwelling growth is dominated by three SA2s within the southern greenfield areas, however, significant growth is also expected within some built-up areas in the north. Over the forecast period, Perth - South West is expected to grow from 182,962 to 282,054 dwellings, an additional 100,000 dwellings by 2046.

The largest proportion of population growth at a local level belongs to Baldivis - North SA2, Casuarina - Wandi SA2, and Karnup SA2, contributing 34,200, 32,000, and 31,500 persons respectively, accounting for 44% of the region's total population growth to 2046. This growth is attributed to the significant number of residential dwellings identified within these areas over the forecast period. The large majority of dwellings identified are greenfield sites along the Kwinana highway in the form of developments that are under-construction in the short-term and state-government-identified areas for urban expansion in the long-term. Collectively, these three SA2s will contribute over 32% of Perth - South West's total dwelling growth to 2046.

Within the City of Cockburn, North Coogee SA2 and South Lake - Cockburn Central SA2 are also expected to experience significant population and dwelling growth, spearheaded by the medium and high-density residential developments on the historical North Coogee industrial precinct and surrounding Cockburn Central station respectively. High-density residential redevelopment has also been identified within the Canning Bridge Activity Centre precinct within the suburbs of Applecross and Mount Pleasant across the road. This activity centre structure plan is shared between Melville and South Perth City Councils, with a total of 4,300 additional dwellings expected on the Melville side by 2046. Significant development is also expected in Fremantle SA2 in the form of redevelopments in the city centre, with a total of 5,400 additional dwellings expected over the forecast period.

Rockingham SA2 and Melville SA2 are forecast to experience the most infill development in the 25 years to 2046, adding an additional 734 and 652 dwellings through infill development respectively.

Ten SA2s are expected to decline in population over the forecast period, the largest of which being Warnbro SA2 (-751), Cooloongup SA2 (-679), and Leeming SA2 (-594). 

Read our forecast results and analysis for Western Australia to learn more about how the different drivers of population change affect the distribution of growth throughout the state.

The population forecast for Western Australia

The following forecast information is for the entire Perth - South West region.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.

The map below identifies all major development sites that have been identified in our research.

These sites have been organised to understand the likely location, capacity, timing and sequence of future development. By matching forecast population growth in this area to these sites, we can provide a more granular view of the distribution of the forecast population within a given region.

In the Perth - South West region, we identified 821 development sites, 81.1% of which were used in the forecast period.

Learn more about our land use research