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The Barossa – Yorke – Mid North region includes the Yorke Peninsula, a popular holiday destination with excellent coastal landscapes, the north-west of which includes the three towns of Kadina, Moonta, and Wallaroo, famous for their history of Cornish copper mining. Further north, Port Pirie is a major seaport and home to one of the world's largest lead smelters. Finally, the Barossa is considered to be one of Australia's premier red wine regions.

It is a large SA4, comprising 14 LGAs. They are: Wakefield Regional Council, The DC of Barunga West, Clare and Gilbert Valleys Council, The Regional Council of Goyder, The DC of Mount Remarkable, Northern Areas Council, The DC of Orroroo Carrieton, Yorke Peninsula Council, Copper Coast Council, The DC of Peterborough, Port Pirie Regional Council, Adelaide Plains Council, The Barossa Council, and Light Regional Council (the latter three include overspill into the adjacent Adelaide – North SA4).

The region is predicted to hold 5% of the state's expected growth over the forecast period to 2046.

Map image via Google Map Data

KEY FINDINGS

Barossa – Yorke – Mid North, SA4

The region reaches 130,000 residents in 2039. The population is forecast to grow to 132,875 by 2046, a net growth of 15,928 since 2021. An additional 12,985 dwellings are expected by 2046.

Major growth hotspots include: Moonta and Port Hughes, Wallaroo and North Beach, Nuriootpa, and Tanunda.
The Barossa growth fronts (primarily the towns of Nuriootpa and Tanunda) are proving to be very popular, with most of the residential zoned land now under approval or already under construction. We assume that the present demand will continue until the area runs out of zoned land, which should happen in the mid-2030s. Thereafter, it is unclear where the particular market will transfer its demand, due to natural and legislative barriers eastward and a distinctly different landscape westward, and is one we will monitor.
The Copper Coast towns of Moonta, Wallaroo, and Kadina, are continuing to rapidly gain their own as retirement hubs, with several lifestyle retirement resorts currently under construction and in the pipeline. The centres of development are on the opposite side to the historic mine locations, which are in decline. Of note, are the present issues with water infrastructure servicing for some of the planned estates, on the Copper Coast, but also inland at Hamley Bridge. This is expected to delay certain completions and is likely to dampen population growth somewhat until at least 2028 (end of current business plan for SA Water).

Forecast Results

Barossa – Yorke – Mid North

The following forecast information is for the Barossa – Yorke – Mid North region.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.

Metric / Year	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Forecast Population	116,947	122,059	125,956	128,673	130,875	132,875
Change (five year)	—	5,112	3,897	2,716	2,202	2,000
Average Annual Change (%)	—	0.86%	0.63%	0.43%	0.34%	0.30%
Forecast Dwellings	62,750	65,262	68,054	70,785	73,278	75,735
Change (five year)	—	2,512	2,792	2,731	2,493	2,457
Average Annual Change (%)	—	0.79%	0.84%	0.79%	0.69%	0.66%

What share of South Australia’s growth will occur in the Barossa – Yorke – Mid North?

South Australia is forecast to add just over half a million people by 2046. The Barossa – Yorke – Mid North region contributes about 5% of this growth.

Learn more about our forecast assumptions for the entire state in the National Forecasting Program – South Australia page.

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