National Forecast Program

Adelaide - Central and Hills

Adelaide - Central and Hills SA4

Published: January 2026
Version 5.2.2

Read forecast analysis and insights for the Central and Hills region from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.

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Adelaide - Central and Hills

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ABOUT

About the Central and Hills Region

South Australia is forecast to add 510, 000 people by 2046. The Adelaide Central and Hills region contributes around 19% of this growth, reflecting its role as the main area of high-rise living and having one of the largest greenfield developments in the State.

  • The Region contains Adelaide City Council (The ‘square mile’ and North Adelaide) as well as inner southern, eastern and northern council areas (Burnside, Norwood Payneham and St Peters, Campbelltown, Walkerville, Prospect and Unley) and stretching out to the Adelaide Hills (Adelaide Hills and Mount Barker District council).
  • Adelaide is the capital of South Australia and the Adelaide SA2 contains the central business district, is the seat of state government administration and has the highest concentration of civic buildings. It also has the main campuses of the newly merged Adelaide University and has a large student population.
  • Densification is primarily concentrated in the inner suburbs of Adelaide, with state significant infill potential following the major arterial roads into the city (e.g. Churchill Road; Magill Road; Payneham Road).
  • The Adelade Hills are relatively sparsely populated rural or semi-rural areas with little growth due to planning restrictions and topography; however Mt Barker is a significant greenfield growth area, expanding from the original historical settlement.
About the Central and Hills Region

Key Findings

Adelaide – Central and Hills is expected to add approximately 65,000 residents between 2021 and 2046. Of that growth, 40% is predicted to be in Mount Barker, with the town growing to accommodate over 26,000 residents by the end of the forecast period. Mount Barker has by far the largest greenfield residential capacity in the region, the expansion of which has prompted development uptake in neighbouring suburbs, most notably Nairne (growing by 1,000 residents to 2046). Minimal change is expected in the vast Adelaide Hills area separating Mount Barker from metropolitan Adelaide.

In metropolitan areas, the largest population gain is expected in the City of Adelaide LGA, which will record ~37,600 residents by 2046. While that is still below the all-time high of 43,000 recorded in 1915, high density living has significantly reshaped the city and will continue to do so, with several government-backed projects in the pipeline.

Beyond the city itself, growth in the inner suburbs will result principally from densification in existing residential suburbs. Notable major projects nearing completion are the Glenside by Cedar Woods, and the Forestville masterplanned community. In the longer-term, significant residential capacity will be yielded from the Keswick Barracks redevelopment as well as the Adelaide University's Magill campus redevelopment.

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Forecast results

The following forecast information presents the numbers for Adelaide - Central and Hills.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.

202120262031203620412046
Forecast Population315,729340,442355,098367,070375,422 380,946
Change (five year)- 24,713 14,656 11,972 8,352 5,524
Average Annual Change (%)- 1.52%0.85% 0.67% 0.45% 0.29%
Forecast Dwellings 138,332146,834 154,993 162,200168,945 175,090
Change (five year- 8,1598,159 7,207 6,7456,145
Average Annual Change (%)-1.2% 1.09% 0.91% 0.82% 0.72%

The team

Our forecasting team

Prepared and presented by experts from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Principal Consultant

Liza Ivanova

Liza Ivanova

Principal Forecast Consultant

Richard Thornton

Richard Thornton

Head of Forecasting

Chris Jones

Chris Jones

Forecaster

Oliver Bowering

Oliver Bowering

Senior Forecast Consultant

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