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Darling Downs - Maranoa is situated in the southern part of the Queensland state, sharing borders with the expansive Queensland - Outback region to the west, Wide Bay to the east, and partially enclosing the Toowoomba SA4.

Darling Downs - Maranoa SA4 fully encompasses Southern Downs, Western Downs, Goondiwindi, Balonne, and Maranoa LGAs, as well as containing the regional areas of Toowoomba LGA.

The region is characterised by rich pastures, with Darling Downs having some of the richest soil in the world by some accounts. Along the eastern end lies the Granite Belt – the wine country, with strong seasonality, supporting a strong tourism industry. Greenfield land is plentiful, with strong uptake recently concentrating in and around the major towns of Warwick and Stanthorpe, while smaller towns like Crows Nest and Oakey benefit from their proximity to Toowoomba in sustaining residential demand. The region at large, however, is not expected to add a large population as the less populated regions continue to lose residents and is predicted to hold 1% of the state’s expected growth over the forecast period to 2046.

The Queensland - Outback region covers a massive, sparsely populated part of Queensland, consisting of the western part of the State through to the Northern most point of the country, just south of the international border with Papua New Guinea.

The major settlement in this region is Mt Isa, whose population is closely tied to the fortunes of its mines, which closed in July 2025, although smelting operations continue. The remainder of the region is very sparsely populated with scattered small farming and indigenous based communities. Limited population growth is expected.

Key findings

Darling Downs - Maranoa

Queensland is forecast to add 2.1 million people by 2046.
The Darling Downs - Maranoa region is expected to comprise less than 1% of this growth, which is second lowest for the state.
The region reaches 140,000 residents in 2037.
Major growth hotspots are Warwick; Crows Nest and Stanthorpe. There is limited evidence of densification in this region as there is plenty of greenfield land to service any housing need. A small number of units have recently been constructed in the larger towns of Dalby, Warwick, and Stanthorpe.
Partly in response to the recent demand for rural residential living, Southern Downs Regional Council is preparing an updated planning scheme which includes the expansion of this zone - in particular in Warwick.
Minimal population is expected to be added to most of the SA2s within this region apart from the hotspots of growth mentioned previously. This is a function of relatively high disadvantage – most notably in Tara – and the heavy reliance on the employment industries of agriculture, forestry and fishing (which tend to fluctuate in employment prospects).
Importantly, SA2s within this region have an older age profile than comparable others in the state, being home to a higher share of population over 65 years old. The role of natural increase in supporting some population growth in this SA4 has notably diminished over the past decade and is expected to continue towards a natural decline as the population continues ageing.

key findings

The Queensland Outback

The Queensland - Outback SA4 is forecast to grow to 85,397 persons and 4,239 dwellings in the 25-year forecast period to 2046. No large changes in population are expected, with housing additions assumed to be single units, except in the far north, where the Queensland government is building small housing developments (~10-15 dwellings).

A number of areas are expected to lose population – Mt Isa being the most notable as it is both the largest settlement in the region, and the one expected to lose the most population. Due to the low numbers of people in general, small shifts in the economy, or single events could change the outlook significantly.

The Queensland - Outback SA4 population is forecast to pass 85,000 in 2041.

What share of Australia's growth will occur in Queensland?

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state- and regional-level forecasts for Queensland.

Access the presentation slides (including our forecast data for each region), and a short recap or the full webinar presentation on-demand. Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

The population forecast for Queensland

Population Forecast for Darling Downs - Maranoa

	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Forecast Population	130,036	135,652	137,986	139,717	141,086	142,209
Change (five year)	-	5,616	2,334	1,731	1,368	1.123
Average Annual Change (%)	-	0.85%	0.34%	0.25%	0.20%	0.16%
Forecast Dwellings	60,680	61,989	63,685	65,399	67,012	68,593
Change (five year)	-	1,309	1,696	1,714	1,613	1,581
Average Annual Change (%)	-	0.43%	0.54%	0.53%	0.49%	0.47%

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