South West Sydney

Over the forecast period, the Sydney - South West SA4 is set to grow from 476,000 people in 2021 to around 720,000 in 2046, a growth of 55% in the period. Growth in the SA4 is dominated by two SA2s - Austral - Greendale and Leppington - Catherine Field. Considerable growth is also expected in the SA2s of Cobbitty - Bringelly and Oran Park.

The Austral - Greendale SA2 contains significant greenfield growth in the Austral and Leppington North precincts, as well as the Bradfield City Centre which will be built as part of the Aerotropolis and serviced by the new metro railway line. Leppington - Catherine Field's growth will be driven by greenfield and apartment growth in the Leppington Town Centre and development in the Catherine Field precinct. Areas in Oran Park and Cobbitty - Bringelly will be driven by substantial urban expansion, including precincts such as Pondicherry and Lowes Creek Maryland. In total, these four growth area SA2s are forecast to grow by over 200,000 people to 2046.

Edmondson Park is also expected to continue its recent growth, while of the more established areas in the SA4, Liverpool is expected to grow by around 50% based on the construction of new medium and higher density development.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, some older established areas such as Green Valley, Hinchinbrook and Bossley Park - Abbotsbury are expected to slightly decline in population over the forecast period.

Over the forecast period, the Outer South West SA4 is forecast to grow by approximately 130,000 persons, from a population of around 300,000 in 2021 to 430,000 in 2046. Most areas are expected to add population over the next 25 years, with growth concentrated in the developing areas of Menangle Park, Gilead, North Appin and Appin. Additionally, there is significant growth in the established areas Campbelltown, Glenfield and Ingleburn, with the development of underutilised sites and densification.

The largest growth in population will occur in the Rosemeadow - Glen Alpine SA2, with the development of Menangle and Gilead. The population is expected to grow by approximately 42,000 over the forecast period.  Development capacity identified within this SA2 is expected to be significantly utilised over the period, with about 76% of the identified capacity being developed.  The SA2 of Douglas Park - Appin, containing the growth precincts of Appin and North Appin, is expected to grow by 37,000 persons over the period. These growth fronts will continue to add significant housing stock beyond the forecast period, with only 30% of capacity used.

Glenfield, in the north of Campbelltown, will experience growth with the development of part of the Hurlstone Agricultural High School and densification of surrounding areas. It is forecast to increase in population by 11,000 persons to a population of approximately 21,000 by 2046. Similarly, Campbelltown will experience a growth of 9,000 persons as it undergoes densification.

In contrast the areas of the SA4 that fall in Camden have limited capacity for growth having recently completed their development phase. As such, they will have minimal population change and, in the case of Harrington Park, will experience population loss as the population ages.

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state- and regional-level forecasts for New South Wales.

Access the presentation slides (including our forecast data for each region), and a short recap or the full webinar presentation on-demand. Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

The population forecast for New South Wales

The following forecast information presents the numbers for Sydney - South West and Sydney - Outer South West SA4s.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.