North Sydney

Over the forecast period, the Northern Beaches SA4 will grow from 264,481 people in 2021 to 303,195 people in 2046. This is a 14% increase over the forecast period. The foundation of this growth stems from major precinct plans such as the Frenchs Forest Hospital Precinct and housing densification within key centres such as Mona Vale, Manly Vale, Dee Why and Brookvale.

Frenchs Forest – Oxford Falls SA2 encompasses most of the growth within this SA4. This is seen in the increase of people in the forecast period, starting at 17,198 in 2021 and finishing with 34,806 people in 2046. This is an 102% increase within the forecast period mainly stemming from the Frenchs Forest Precinct Plan to establish a high-density residential precinct near the hospital. The Precinct Plan is expected to commence development within the forecast period which greatly attributes to the massive growth in population for this SA2.

Mona Vale, Manly Vale & Dee Why SA2s are also subject to the Northern Beaches Council Housing Strategy. These urban centres are designated for medium density housing to increase overall SA4 capacity through intensification and diversification of housing stock.

Lastly, Freshwater – Brookvale SA2 is subject to Brookvale Structure Plan which commences during the forecast period.

Over the forecast period the Sydney – North Sydney and Hornsby SA4 is set to grow from 426,070 residents in 2021 to around 512,189 in 2046. This is an approximate growth of 20% people over the forecast period. A key SA2 with considerable growth is Lindfield-Roseville, which contains the railway stations of the same name. It is forecasted to grow from 22,592 residents in 2021 to 46,623 residents in 2046. This is 106% of growth. The TOD program is the biggest contributor to this growth as the plan is to provide more than 20,000 new dwellings amongst the 4 key stations located within the LGA of Ku-ring-gai. The development is expected to commence in the forecast period and continue afterwards.

Furthermore, there are other TOD programs within this SA4. St Leonards and Crows Nest is under the TOD program with an accelerated rezoning scheme. Hornsby Town Centre initially had a masterplan done by Hornsby City Council which has been used to form the basis of the Hornsby Town Centre TOD. Medium and low-rise density is expected to contribute to the housing supply as infill.

Throughout the forecast period, Sydney-Ryde SA4’s Estimated Residential Population is expected to grow from 202,922 in 2021 to 291,429 in 2046. Over the period, it is an increase of 43%. This growth stems the rezoning plans based on Transport Oriented Development (TOD) at Macquarie Park and the revitalisation and residential intensification along urban centres within Ryde, Epping and Eastwood.

Macquarie Park – Marsfield is a key SA2 in which a significant portion of growth takes place. Subject to the accelerated rezoning from the TOD program, which lends to the development of the Macquarie Park Innovation Precinct Place Strategy. This is expected to commence in the forecast period and provide a variety of high-density development within the precinct.

The Eastwood SA2 is expected to grow as well within the forecast period, stemming from the Eastwood Master Plan to help revitalise the area, especially the opportunity near the train line.

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state- and regional-level forecasts for New South Wales.

Access the presentation slides (including our forecast data for each region), and a short recap or the full webinar presentation on-demand. Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

The population forecast for New South Wales

The following forecast information presents the combined numbers for the Northern Beaches SA4.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.