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Migration is driving record population growth across Australia. Fertility rates are falling. And yet the number of births is still forecast to exceed the peaks of the 1960s baby boom. Meanwhile, the pipeline of housing development is reshaping where families can settle, and when.

So how can school planners make sense of this complex mix of competing forces, when they’re making decisions that will determine whether every child has a place in a well-resourced school in their community?

This report distills Australia’s complex demographic story into a clear, practical guide for education providers. It draws on .id’s 25 years of demographic expertise and the same evidence base trusted by state education departments, Catholic dioceses, and independent schools across the country. You’ll see how leaders are already using this data to plan capital works, advocate for and allocate funding, compete for student enrolments, and clearly communicate strategies built on a respected evidence base, and how you can apply the same insights in your own organisation.

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What's inside

The big picture

The big picture

Australia will need more than 720,000 additional school places by 2046, with growth unevenly spread across early learning, primary, and secondary sectors.

Demographic drivers

Demographic drivers

How migration and births, including the short-lived COVID baby blip, are shaping future demand for school places.

Local context matters

Local context matters

New housing estates on the urban fringe are booming, while older suburbs are ageing and losing younger families. Inner-city areas are seeing a resurgence, while housing affordability is driving growth in some regional centres.

Case studies in action

Case studies in action

Real-world examples, such as Catholic Education Tasmania, show how demographic evidence guides planning for capital works, land purchases, site selection and individual schools.

Planning with confidence

Planning with confidence

Practical insights into linking forecasts, enrolments, and housing trends to help education leaders allocate resources to the right place at the right time.

What's inside