National Forecasting Program

The Western Melbourne region comprises a single SA4, Melbourne West. This region is forecast to account for 21% of the total population growth of Victoria between 2021 and 2046.

The Melbourne West SA4 stretches from the inner western suburbs of Footscray, Newport and Williamstown bordering the Maribyrnong and Yarra Rivers and Port Phillip Bay in the east, through to Werribee, Bacchus March and Melton in the west. Most of the growth of this area is seen in the greenfield areas of Wyndham and Melton, along with new fringe growth areas of Bacchus Marsh, and via densification and industrial or commercial turnover in to residential areas in the more established areas.

Key findings

Melbourne West

Over the forecast period the Melbourne West SA4 population will grow from 863,956 in 2021 to around 1,469,301 people in 2046, a growth rate of around 70% at an annual growth rate of 2.15%. This growth is predominantly focused around the greenfield growth areas of Rockbank - Mount Cottrell, Cobblebank - Strathtulloh, Fraser Rise - Plumpton and Tarneit (West) - Mount Cottrell SA2s. In addition, significant brownfields activity and densification is forecast in Footscray.

The largest increase in development activity and population growth is within the Rockbank - Mount Cottrell SA2 which sees its population grow from around 17,800 in 2021 to almost 126,000 people in 2046. This is one SA2 of many in the Melton growth front, which in turn is one of the most significant in Melbourne and when completed will see unbroken housing between the CBD and Melton at the Urban Growth Boundary.

In contrast, the Wyndham growth corridor will become almost fully exhausted by the end of the forecast period, and further growth will shift to the Northern growth areas of Melbourne.

Footscray is the only inner city SA2 included in the top 5 SA2's by additional population, and features both densification of existing housing stock and the turnover of old industrial and commercial land in to high density housing precincts.

Two types of growth

Chris describes the different types of growth that will occur in the inner suburbs vs the outer suburbs.

Within the Moorabool LGA in the Bacchus Marsh SA2 the discovery of the critically endangered Victorian Grassland Earless Dragon will delay the starting of the Merrimu and PSP, and the timing and extent of this development front will depend on the outcome of investigations.

What share of Australia's growth will occur in Victoria?

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state- and regional-level forecasts for Victoria

Access the presentation slides (including our forecast data for each region), and a short recap or the full webinar presentation on-demand. Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

The population forecast for Victoria

Forecast results

The following forecast information presents the numbers for Melbourne West SA4.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.

	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Forecast Population	863,956	1,002,559	1,133,974	1,252,287	1,362,341	1,469,301
Change (five year)	-	138,603	131,415	118,313	110,054	106,960
Average Annual Change (%)	-	3.02%	2.49%	2.00%	1.70%	1.52%
Forecast Dwellings	316,410	372,989	423,560	471,175	516,160	560,590
Change (five year)	-	56,578	50,571	47,615	44,985	44,430
Average Annual Change (%)	-	3.34%	2.58%	2.15%	1.84%	1.67%

Access

How to access the National Forecasting Program

Our National Forecasting Program is the backbone of all of our forecasting products and services for government and business.

Government Toolkit

Our Government Toolkit gives users access to the proprietary datasets maintained by .id through a suite of intuitive online tools.
See the National Forecasting Program in action in our Population Forecast online tool, or get in touch.

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