National Forecasting Program

The Melbourne Inner region comprises a single SA4, Melbourne Inner. This region is forecast to provide 12.9% of Victoria's population growth between 2021 and 2046.

The Melbourne Inner SA4 contains the key urban centre of the Melbourne CBD, as well as the urban regeneration projects at Fisherman's Bend, Ardern /Macauley, Southbank and Docklands. The region will also contain all five stations of the soon to be opened Metro Tunnel train project (Ardern, Parkville, State Library [CBD North], Town Hall [CBD South] and ANZAC).

The Melbourne Inner region additionally contains the whole of the Cities of Melbourne, Port Phillip and Yarra, as well as parts of the cities of Stonnington, Darebin, Merri-bek and Moonee Valley. Notable features of the region include the Central Melbourne CBD and port areas, the inner seaside suburb of St Kilda, the University and health/medical precinct in Carlton and Parkville, and the inner urban centres of Fitzroy, Collingwood, Brunswick, Flemington/Kensington and Moonee Ponds.

Key findings

Melbourne Inner

Over the forecast period, the Melbourne Inner SA4 is set to grow from 633,500 people in 2021 to around 1,045,000 in 2046, a growth of 65% in the period. Growth in the SA4 is dominated by industrial transformation in Port Melbourne Industrial (Fisherman's Bend) (+40, 500) and North Melbourne / Kensington SA2s (Ardern / Macauley) (+36, 278) and the continuing redevelopment of Docklands, and Southbank (West) - South Wharf, Southbank - East.

Other urban intensification areas include St Kilda Road, St Kilda, Brunswick, Coburg, Moonee Ponds and the CBD and North Melbourne. In addition to general mid-scale intensification along growth corridors in these areas, there are individual projects, such as the Moonee Valley racecourse redevelopment, the Pentridge Gaol redevelopment and the Brunswick Village development that contribute significantly to the increase in housing and population.

In contrast, a number of SA2's outside designated growth areas are not predicted to grow as significantly e.g. Elwood, Carlton - North Princess Hill, Port Melbourne, Parkville.

The demographic dynamics in the SA4 vary considerably over the forecast period, as the inner city areas recover from COVID with the return of students and short term residents, and the return of vacancy rates to pre-pandemic levels. In the mid- to long-term, the increase in net overseas migration will favor growth for these inner city areas.

What share of Australia's growth will occur in Victoria?

Read our forecast results and analysis for Victoria on the resources page. Watch the webinar recap or see a summary slide pack to learn what's driving growth in Australia, and each region of the state.

Slide from our webinar presentation The population forecast for Victoria.

What share of Australia's growth will occur in Victoria?

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state and regional-level forecasts for Victoria.

Access the presentation slides (including our forecast data for each region), and a short recap or the full webinar presentation on-demand. Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

The population forecast for Victoria

Forecast results

The following forecast information presents the combined numbers for the Melbourne Inner SA4.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.

	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Forecast Population	626,913	705,521	786,096	867,515	953,609	1,044,895
Change (five year)	-	78,850	79,574	81,489	86,094	91286
Average Annual Change (%)	-	2.39%	2.16%	1.99%	1.91%	1.85%
Forecast Dwellings	358,846	380,679	416,788	463,339	515,692	571,515
Change (five year)	-	22,115	36,108	46,550	52,353	55,823
Average Annual Change (%)	-	1.20%	1.83%	2.14%	2.16%	2.08%

Access

How to access the National Forecasting Program

Our National Forecasting Program is the backbone of all of our forecasting products and services for government and business.

Government Toolkit

Our Government Toolkit gives users access to the proprietary datasets maintained by .id through a suite of intuitive online tools.
See the National Forecasting Program in action in our Population Forecast online tool, or get in touch.

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