National Forecast Program

The population forecast for Victoria

The population and housing forecast for Victoria

Published: August 2025
Version: 5.2.0

Read forecast analysis and insights for Victoria from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.

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The population forecast for Victoria

About the Victoria State Forecasts

  • As the hardest hit State in the COVID pandemic, saw a decrease in population in 2021. This then saw a surge in population in 2023 and 2024. Victoria then returns to its long-term average growth. Though this declines over time as Net Overseas Migration decreases, and the lower levels of fertility stem population growth.

     

  • Unlike Sydney, Melbourne has ample land to expand outwards in most directions, which sees large growth in Melbourne’s North and West, as well as in South East until exhausted.
  • There has been an appetite for densification, with the CBD reaching new heights, though larger-scale densification projects like Fisherman’s Bend are slow going.  
  • Victoria’s regional cities continue to grow, particularly Geelong and Ballarat, which are favoured due to their proximity to Melbourne and their own local economies.  

Access

How to access the National Forecasting Program

Our National Forecasting Program is the backbone of all of our forecasting products and services for government and business.

Government Toolkit

Our Government Toolkit gives users access to the proprietary datasets maintained by .id through a suite of intuitive online tools.
See the National Forecasting Program in action in our Population Forecast online tool, or get in touch.

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Government Toolkit

Key Considerations

  • This forecast utilises the 2022 to 2024 Regional Estimated Regional Population release in 2025 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. 
  • The assumption that the Suburban Rail Loop East will open as planned in the 2030s. Therefore, high-density housing around those precincts will be realised.  
  • The release of the 60 Train and Tram Zone Activity Centres, most of which are already Activity Centre Zones within the current zoning system. Though this brings streamlined pathways for approval and development in these locations, it more so affects population distribution at the SA4 to SA2 level.   
  • Investment in rail infrastructure, like the continuation of the Level Crossing Removal Project, electrification of the Melton line, and upgrades to the rest of the network.  

Forecast results

The following forecast information presents the numbers for Victoria.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.

202120262031203620412046
Forecast Population6,547,822 7,225,477 7,732,1658,213,052 8,657,789 9,077,330
Change (five year)-677,655 506,688 480,887 444,737 419,541
Average Annual Change (%)-1.99% 1.36%1.21%1.06% 0.95%
Forecast Dwellings 2,805,6583,048,143 3,281,532 3,523,924 3,765,835 4,004,995
Change (five year- 242,485 233,389 242,392 241,911 239,160
Average Annual Change (%)-1.67% 1.49%1.44%1.34%1.24%

The team

Our forecasting team

Prepared and presented by experts from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Forecaster

Liza Ivanova

Liza Ivanova

Forecaster

Richard Thornton

Richard Thornton

Product Manager Forecast

Chris Jones

Chris Jones

Forecaster

Oliver Bowering

Oliver Bowering

Forecaster

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