The population forecast for South Australia

Join us to hear the results of our detailed research into the demographic drivers of change in each region of the state, and what our detailed assessment of current and future housing development tells us about when, where and how much growth we can expect in each part of South Australia over the next 25 years.

Here are five big stories we will be discussing in more detail in the webinar.

1. 400,000 additional South Australians over the next 25 years
That's the state's share of the 9.2 million people we forecast will be added to Australia's population in the same period.

2. It's all happening in the Adelaide-North region
This region is home to growing young families and with ample land supply to support Greenfield growth, the Adelaide-North region and, in particular, suburbs like Elizabeth, Gawler, and Salisbury will be home to the largest growth fronts, accounting for 40% of South Australia's overall growth over the next 25 years.

3. Overseas migration remains the big story in town
While SA only receives a relatively small share of the total migration to Australia from overseas, it remains the most significant driver of population growth in the state

4. The youth brain drain persists
This is a long-standing and cyclical pattern, that South Australia loses more young people to other states than it gains from them, and while it reversed momentarily during the pandemic, we're already seeing that pattern return

5. Zoned land or sites marked for development ≠ future housing
Just because land is zoned or a site is marked for future development, you can't assume someone will live there any time soon

At the local level, understanding future housing development is key to understanding how the population will be distributed throughout a region.  But if you're using zoning or identified development sites to forecast where people will live in the years ahead, you're probably overestimating future demand.