National Forecast Program

Townsville

Queensland - Townsville SA4

Version 5.1.1 Published 11th July 2023

Townsville

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About

About the Queensland - Townsville SA4 Region

Townsville SA4 is forecast to grow from 237,452 to 300,834 by 2046, an increase of 63,382 people throughout the forecast period. The region's population and dwelling growth is dominated by two SA2s, Burdell - Mount Low SA2 and Bohle Plains SA2, which are forecast to experience significant growth relative to each place.

About the Queensland - Townsville SA4 Region

Key findings

Townsville

The population of Townsville SA4 in 2021 was 237,452. Forecast to grow by 63,382, the population is set to reach 300,834 persons by 2046, accounting for 3.1% of Queensland's population growth over the forecast period.
  • The number of dwellings in Townsville SA4 is forecast to grow from 103,967 in 2021 to 132,352 in 2046, an additional 28,385 dwellings.
  • Burdell - Mount Low SA2 (17,282 persons), and Bohle Plains SA2 (12,313 persons) are forecast to contribute the largest share of population growth combined, accounting for 46.7% of Townsville SA4's total population growth to 2046, or 27.3% and 19.4% respectively.
  • The majority of the region's dwelling growth is attributed also to Burdell - Mount Low SA2 (6,381 dwellings) and Bohle Plains SA2 (4,668 dwellings) with a combined contribution of 38.9% or 22.5% and 16.4% respectively.
  • two SA2s of are forecast to decline in population over the forecast period, with the largest decline forecast in Annandale SA2

Read on below for charts, maps and tables sharing the forecast results at SA2 geography. 

Key findings

Geography and the role and function of place

Located in North Queensland, the Townsville SA4 region is made up of 33 SA2s and is situated about 1350km from Brisbane CBD. Characterised by its tropical climate and proximity to the great barrier reef, Townsville is becoming an increasingly popular long-term destination for migrants due to its expanding job market.

At the furthest northern point of the region is Ingham, a significant population centre directly west of Palm Island. Directly in the centre of the region is Charters Towers, a historic gold mining town forecast to contribute 1% of the region's population growth to 2046. The majority of the population lies northeast of Charters Towers along the coast. Nearly 100km south of the Townsville CBD is the Burdekin Shire, one of Australia's richest agricultural regions, serviced predominately by Ayr, a medium sized town forecast to experience close to 1,200 new persons in the 25-year forecast period to 2046. The major population centre of the region is Townsville, with surrounding suburbs Burdell, Mount Low and Bohle Plains forecast to experience the largest proportion of growth throughout the forecast period.

In terms of transport, the region benefits from a passenger bus service which connects a large proportion Townsville's population, however, other major population centres within the region rely on private transportation. 

What share of Australia's growth will occur in Queensland?

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state- and regional-level forecasts for Queensland.

Access the presentation slides (including our forecast data for each region), and a short recap or the full webinar presentation on-demand. Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

The population forecast for Queensland

Forecast results for Townsville SA4

The following forecast information presents the numbers for Townsville SA4

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.

 

 

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The team

Our forecasting team

Prepared and presented by experts from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team.

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Forecaster

Liza  Ivanova

Liza Ivanova

Forecaster

Richard  Thornton

Richard Thornton

Product Manager Forecast

Chris Jones

Chris Jones

Forecaster

Oliver Bowering

Oliver Bowering

Forecaster

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