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The Moreton Bay South region borders Brisbane's northernmost suburbs towards North Lakes and stretches out westwards to include Dayboro and Samford valley with all the rural localities between them. It has the Redcliffe line running through the middle of the region which provides an opportunity for densification.

Unlike it's northern counterpart, the Moreton Bay South region is running out of land, this results in the move towards densification of already established areas. This is supported by The Mill PDA which will provide high density dwellings in this region.

Key findings

Moreton Bay - South

Over the forecast period, the Moreton Bay – South SA4 population will grow from around 221,556 in 2021 to 289,579 in 2046. This is an increase of about 68,023 people which is about a 30.7% increase over a 25-year period.

Due to the nature of Moreton Bay – South running out of land, there are various pockets of developable land leftover. In residential areas such as Mango Hill SA2 and Murrumba Downs – Griffin SA2, there are pockets of potential greenfield development which stem from the Emerging Community zone. However, these pockets get utilised throughout the forecast period.

Furthermore, within the Dakabin SA2 and Kallangur SA2, the Moreton Bay Housing Strategy identifies these areas for potential redevelopment through densification. This is done through the Next Generation & Urban Neighbourhood zones, which will up the density of these areas. This strategy within these areas represents the momentum of swing in terms of development, which will see more densification along infrastructure rich areas (such as train lines).

This is also seen with The Mill PDA which will contribute a significant portion of high density dwellings within the Petrie, Lawnton & Kallangur SA2s through various urban/mixed use precincts. Additionally, there are opportunities for infill development along the transport corridors which can further increase the densification based on the train stations along the Redcliffe line,

What share of Australia's growth will occur in Queensland?

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state- and regional-level forecasts for Queensland.

Access the presentation slides (including our forecast data for each region), and a short recap or the full webinar presentation on-demand. Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

The population forecast for Queensland

Forecast results

The following forecast information presents the numbers for the Moreton Bay - South region.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.

	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Forecast Population	221,556	242,635	256,072	269,498	280,679	28,9579
Change (five year)	-	21,079	13,436	13,426	11,181	8,901
Average Annual Change (%)	-	1.83%	1.08%	1.03%	0.82%	0.63%
Forecast Dwellings	80,638	86,196	91,730	97,249	10,1881	10,5745
Change (five year)	-	5,558	5,534	5,519	4,632	3,864
Average Annual Change (%)	-	1.34%	1.25%	1.18%	0.94%	0.75%

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