Australia

Jump ahead to the data for these big stories;

• Why we expect the post-pandemic spike in overseas migration will last longer than official forecasts
• Why we need to plan for increased demand in all age groups - not just our ageing population.
• How (and when) a revised birth rate assumption impacts our population forecast
• Why we're assuming life expectancy will continue to increase
• Where the growth is forecast to occur

Australia to add 8.6 million people 2021-2046

Australia’s population has doubled since the early 70s. At the last Census in 2021, Australia's population was just over 25.5 million people. Our 2024 forecasts show Australia reaching 34.6 million by 2046 - an additional 8.9 million people. 

Two-thirds of Australia's total forecast growth will be in Australia's four largest states, with the lion's share occurring within the Greater capital cities of Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth.

Use the map below to see our latest forecasts for your region. Click any point on the map to see a link to the latest analysis from our forecasters for that region.

Take a moment to understand the assumptions that underpin our forecasts, so you can understand the results and use them with confidence.

Overseas Migration

We forecast Net Overseas Migration (NOM) will stay higher for longer than official forecasts predict. As a result, we forecast Australia's population will add 750,000 more people in the next five years than the Centre for Population.

 

More births, despite a declining birth rate

A reduction in the birth rate means there are fewer births in our forecasts than previously (but we still forecast Australia's population growth will continue to grow from Natural increase (the net of births and deaths) over the next 25 years.

 

Life expectancy continues to defy expectations

For the last 50 years, Australian life expectancy has continued to increase at the rate of an additional year every five years, with lower mortality rates in mid-life leading to more people in their 70's and 80's. We use the high life expectancy assumption in our forecasts, which assumes it will continue to increase, rather than plateau. 

 

Yes, but we need to be planning for more people in all age groups. This animated age-sex pyramid shows how the population of each five-year age group in Australia is forecast to change over the next 25 years. 

View fullscreen (individual years)