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CONSULTING
Planning for Growth: Hunter Water
Key highlights
The Client
Hunter Water, servicing more than 600,000 residents and businesses across the Lower Hunter
Their Challenge
Plan long-term wastewater infrastructure for a rapidly transforming Newcastle, amid uncertain growth patterns and infill development
The Approach
Scenario-based small-area forecasts to 2055, integrating detailed spatial analysis of development sites and pump station catchments
The Outcome
A robust, flexible evidence base that highlights future pressure points, supports investment timing and provides a repeatable framework as conditions change.
Hunter Water is the essential services provider for more than 600,000 residents and businesses across the Lower Hunter. With a vast network of assets that includes 19 wastewater treatment works and over 10,000 kilometres of water and sewer mains, the organisation is planning for a region experiencing sustained population growth and rapid residential development.
A central Newcastle wastewater treatment works is one of its most important facilities, servicing Newcastle and surrounding suburbs. Planning for this catchment is critical to supporting the area’s urban transformation.
The challenge
Newcastle’s urban transformation is accelerating. Major strategic initiatives such as new transport-oriented development opportunities, the Broadmeadow Place Strategy and emerging infill activity are reshaping how and where people will live.
These shifts create uncertainty for long-term infrastructure planning, particularly for wastewater services that require significant lead times and capital investment.
Hunter Water needed clear, future-focused evidence to:
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understand potential demand on the wastewater catchment
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assess how different development pathways might influence capacity requirements over the next three decades.
Bringing demographic and spatial insight together
To respond to this uncertainty, Hunter Water sought a partner that could integrate demographic insight with deep spatial knowledge of local development activity.
Through the National Forecasting Program, .id has more than 28 years of experience in small-area forecasting, expertise in modelling complex growth environments and strong familiarity with the Hunter region through long-standing work with councils including the City of Newcastle.
This combination meant demographic and development signals could be translated into realistic, place-specific population and dwelling forecasts that Hunter Water could trust.
A Scenario-Based Approach to 2055
.id developed a suite of scenario-based forecasts to 2055, using the National Forecasting Program as the foundation and tailoring assumptions to the unique dynamics of the catchment.
We created a Most Likely Scenario, then designed alternate scenarios testing:
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higher levels of densification
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faster delivery of major development
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slower delivery of major development.
Each scenario incorporated detailed spatial analysis of hundreds of development sites and pump station catchments, providing granular insight into how different futures could unfold.
The outputs included:
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annual population and dwelling estimates
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dwelling type composition
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average household size
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GIS layers for mapping and further analysis
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a clear narrative report and briefing for decision-makers.
Value Delivered
The work gave Hunter Water a robust evidence base to plan future wastewater infrastructure with confidence. By showing how population, housing supply and household composition could shift under different growth conditions, the analysis highlighted where and when pressure on the wastewater treatment catchment is most likely to emerge.
The scenario approach provided flexibility, allowing Hunter Water to test the implications of planning reforms, market forces and delivery timelines.
The result is long-term strategic clarity and a repeatable framework that can be updated as conditions evolve, helping Hunter Water continue to invest in the right infrastructure at the right time.
How we help Australian utility providers
Our spatial intelligence provides a solid evidence base for utility providers to confidently make long-term investment and infrastructure decisions, and plan community engagement strategies. Get a complete view of development, support good financial decisions with advanced modelling, avoid costly financial mistakes, and engage the community well from the beginning.
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