GOVERNMENT TOOLS
business
CONSULTING
Forecasting Growth in Retirement Living Demand
Key highlights
The Client
Premium Retirement Living provider
Their Challenge
Our client was a high-quality senior living provider. With a number of villages across a single state, the company was planning its next phase of growth.
The future of senior living demand in Australia is strong – the population aged 70 to 84 is set to grow a great deal over the next decade. But complexity is growing too! Demand is not evenly spread, and not every growth corridor suits a premium retirement living offer.
How could their planners forecast future demand?
The approach
The client worked with Informed Decisions to build a multi-layered spatial model of retirement living supply and demand across their home state. Together, the teams identified areas that are experiencing the fastest growth, and those most likely to support service investment.
The result
The market framework provided our client with robust, evidence-based insights into market demand, supply gaps and demographic drivers shaping the sector in their state.
Our client can now precisely locate its target market, build a long term pipeline - and make confident investment decisions.
Locating real demand for premium retirement living
The client's home state, like most of Australia, has a growing and ageing population. Demand is building for service and care options.
However, aging populations are spread disproportionately across the state. Plus, our client had an additional requirement: to pinpoint demand for its premium lifestyle offering.
They needed evidence-based solutions to three key questions:
- Where is demand for retirement living strongest now, and how will it change in the future?
- Where are the gaps in current and future supply?
- Which locations should be prioritised for site selection and feasibility work?
Mapping quantity of demand against quality
The client-side team and Informed Decisions worked together to build a spatial model of retirement living supply and demand- one that would identify high-priority areas for service investment. The model was used to provide high-quality information on demographic, economic, and housing trends shaping the retirement market, providing a clear and well-founded basis for internal decision-making and external discussion.
The analysis combined:
- Demand forecasting - modelling demand for retirement living across areas of interest, focusing on 70-84 years olds and general ageing patterns across SA2s
- Market intelligence - developing user profiles to identify areas of market and service fit using a combination of proprietary and public datasets
- Supply mapping - building a database of existing and planned retirement villages and assessing service provision gaps, and
- Location indexing - combining the above to locate areas of highest need and opportunity.
Results were delivered through clear maps, ranking tables, and local-area profiles, so that executive and development teams could quickly understand which locations were most suitable - and why.
Results for the Provider
The market framework provided robust, evidence-based insights into market demand, supply gaps and demographic drivers shaping the sector.
The evidence revealed a vital distinction between the quantity and quality of demand, with a mix of inner-city, middle-ring, and outer-ring growth areas identified.
Using the framework, our client has been able to:
- Prioritise its target market through market intelligence and user profiling
- Determine site acquisition targets through the location index rankings, rather than spreading effort across a broad, unfocused catchment
- Build a longer-term pipeline of possible inner-city, middle-ring, and outer suburb locations, and
- Support internal and external conversations through transparent, physical evidence to guide investment decisions and discussions with stakeholders.
A Framework for Custom Service Provision
With the right evidence, retirement living and aged care providers can shape options that fit their brand, meet community expectations and support long-term, sustainable communities for older Australians.
Catchment-based spatial intelligence provides a clear evidence base to:
- Clarify demand and supply dynamics for retirement living
- Reduce uncertainty in site selection and feasibility work
- Align investment decisions with the communities most likely to support a premium offer
A rapidly growing and ageing population requires a more precise level of service planning.
To explore how a similar framework could support your portfolio, book a 1:1 consultation with our team to inform your next investment decision.
Explore our report 'Caring for an Ageing Australia'
image: @Vlada Karpovich via Canva
FAQ
Who was the client in this case study?
The client was a premium retirement living provider operating several villages within a single Australian state and planning its next phase of growth.
What problem did the spatial model solve for the provider?
The spatial model gave the provider a consistent way to see where retirement living demand would grow, where supply gaps existed and which locations were most suitable for a premium product, so they could prioritise site selection and investment.
How did the location index help with decision making?
The location index combined demand, market fit and supply to rank areas by opportunity, allowing the provider to focus acquisition and feasibility work on the highest potential locations instead of spreading resources thinly.
Is this approach only useful for premium retirement living?
No. The same demand and supply modelling approach can be adapted for different price points in retirement living and for aged care services, as long as the user profiles and market criteria are tailored to the provider’s offer.
What would another provider gain from a similar project?
Another provider would gain a clear view of where to grow, where to consolidate and how to build a long-term pipeline of potential sites grounded in local demographics, market fit and existing supply.