GOVERNMENT TOOLS
business
CONSULTING
Forecasting growth in aged care demand
Key highlights
The Client
St Ives Retirement Living
Their Challenge
St Ives Group is a high-quality retirement living provider in Western Australia. With seven villages across the state, St Ives Group is planning its next phase of growth in Western Australia.
The future of aged care demand is strong – the population aged 70 to 84 is set to grow a great deal over the next decade – but so is the complexity. Demand is not evenly spread, and not every growth corridor suits St Ives' premium retirement living offer. How could their planners forecast future demand?
The approach
St Ives Group worked with Informed Decisions to build a multi-layered spatial model of retirement living supply and demand across Western Australia. The teams identified areas that are experiencing the fastest growth, and those most likely to support service investment.
The result
The market framework provided St Ives Group with robust, evidence-based insights into market demand, supply gaps and demographic drivers shaping the sector across Western Australia.
St Ives Group has been able to precisely locate its target market, build a long term pipeline - and support confident investment decision making.
Locating Demand for Premium Retirement Living
Western Australia has a growing and ageing population, and there is growing demand for service and care.
However, aging populations are spread disproportionately across the state, and St Ives has an additional requirement: to pinpoint demand for its premium lifestyle offering.
St Ives Group needed evidence-based solutions to three key questions:
- Where is demand for retirement living strongest now, and how will it change in the future?
- Where are the gaps in current and future supply?
- Which locations should be prioritised for site selection and feasibility work?
A tailored model of aged care demand
Informed Decisions worked with St Ives to build a spatial market model tailored to their customers.
The model provided high-quality information on the demographic, economic and housing trends shaping the retirement market.
This gave St Ives Group a clear, well-founded basis for internal decision-making and external discussion.
The analysis combined:
- Demand forecasting – modelling demand for retirement living across metropolitan Perth and the South West, focusing on 70–84 year olds and ageing patterns across SA2s.
- Market intelligence – developing user and market profiles to identify areas of service fit using a combination of proprietary and public datasets such as property values, home ownership rates, access to amenities, etc.
- Supply mapping – building a database of existing and planned retirement villages and assessing service provision gaps.
- Location indexing – combining the above to locate areas of highest need and opportunity.
Results were delivered through clear maps, ranking tables and local area profiles, so St Ives Group’s executive and development teams could quickly see which locations were most suitable and why.
Mapping quantity of demand against quality
The teams at St Ives and Informed Decisions worked together to build a spatial model of retirement living supply and demand across Western Australia - one that would identify high-priority areas for service investment. The model was used to provide high-quality information on demographic, economic, and housing trends shaping the retirement market, providing a clear and well-founded basis for internal decision-making and external discussion.
The analysis combined:
- Demand forecasting – modelling demand for retirement living across Metropolitan Perth and the South West, focusing on 70-84 years olds and general ageing patterns across SA2s
- Market intelligence – developing user profiles to identify areas of market and service fit using a combination of proprietary and public datasets
- Supply mapping – building a database of existing and planned retirement villages and assessing service provision gaps.
- Location indexing – combining the above to locate areas of highest need and opportunity
Results were delivered through clear maps, ranking tables, and local-area profiles, so that St Ives’ executive and development teams could quickly understand which locations were most suitable - and why.
Outcomes for St Ives
Using the market framework, St Ives has been able to:
- Prioritise premium infill. Focusing its growth strategy on inner and middle-ring suburbs where ageing, home ownership and constrained supply align with its premium brand.
- Target site acquisition. St Ives can use opportunity rankings to direct site search and feasibility testing in a small number of high-performing SA2s, rather than spreading effort across a wide catchment.
- Build a longer-term pipeline. Identifying select South West and fringe growth locations as secondary pipeline opportunities, where future projects may prioritise scale rather than premium pricing.
- Support internal and external conversations. Using transparent, spatially-grounded evidence to guide internal investment decisions and discussions with landowners, partners and financiers.
In short, St Ives now has a clear, evidence-based roadmap for where to grow, what type of product to focus on, and when.
The outcome: quality Aged Care decision making
The market framework provided St Ives Group with robust, evidence-based insights into market demand, supply gaps and demographic drivers shaping the sector across Western Australia.
The evidence revealed a vital distinction between the quantity and quality of demand, with a mix of inner-city, middle-ring, and outer-ring growth areas identified.
Using the framework, St Ives Group has been able to:
- Prioritise its target market through market intelligence and user profiling
- Determine site acquisition targets through the location index rankings, rather than spreading effort across a broad, unfocused catchment
- Build a longer-term pipeline of possible inner-city, middle-ring, and outer suburb locations, and
- Support internal and external conversations through transparent, physical evidence to guide investment decisions and discussions with stakeholders.
How we help aged care providers choose locations
With the right evidence, operators like St Ives can shape retirement living options that fit their brand, meet community expectations and deliver long-term, sustainable communities for older Australians.
Our spatial intelligence provides a robust evidence base for service providers to make investment decisions in their areas confidently. Our models enable market clarity through our tailored demand and supply analytics solutions.
A rapidly growing and ageing population requires a new level of service provision. Book a 1:1 consultation with our expert team today, to help inform your next investment decision.
image: @Vlada Karpovich via Canva