GOVERNMENT TOOLS
business
CONSULTING
Forecasting demand for retirement living
Key highlights
The Client
A large Australian property developer and retirement living provider.
Thei Challenge
They needed to make a major investment decision into a niche market - and had little modelling available to validate their planning.
The Approach
Informed Decisions developed a detailed picture of supply and demand for every suburb of interest, based on demographic evidence, the client's own data, and competitor information. This meant the client could easily rank areas based on current and future levels of demand, relative to current supply, and select the best opportunities for investment.
Results
Evidence-based, rational, confident investment decisions.
They are passionate people focused on one specialist area – demographics. The result was a highly focused piece of work which provided us with the evidence-base to make rational, confident and consistent investment decisions.
- The Client
The Business Challenge
A prominent retirement living provider was looking to invest some hundreds of millions of dollars into retirement villages across Australia. They needed a robust assessment of potential demand so that they could invest with confidence.
The client was looking to make a major investment (some hundreds of millions of dollars) into retirement villages across Australia. They needed a robust assessment of potential demand, and an evidence base for planning their supply response. Moreover, the team needed clear visual tools to show stakeholders how their recommendations had been formulated.
At the time, little modelling had been done of aged care demand, especially spatially, as it is effectively a niche, age-and-background specific segment of the housing market. Yet the business was planning to make serious investment decisions.
The Informed Decisions solution
Working collaboratively with the client, Informed Decisions developed reliable and transparent predictions of future retirement living demand, as well as robust models of client catchment and take-up.
Combining location analysis with our population forecasts, demographic analysis and data from the client, our team was able to construct a detailed picture of both current and future demand, keying off not just population by age, but detailed target market criteria, as well as demographic indicators for propensity to choose a retirement village, current penetration rates, appetite for a premium offer and site desirability.
Together, our teams were able to model catchment areas for retirement living villages, enabling the client to test existing rules of thumb – that people wouldn’t travel more than 15km to a retirement village, or that people were prepared to relocate further when moving to coastal villages, for example.
We also helped the client identify areas where the current take-up of retirement living was low, potentially pointing to a lack of supply in the area. This also helped rule out areas with high demand but which were already well serviced by existing supply.
Our visualisation tools then ensured the client team could clearly communicate the basis of their investment decisions to relevant stakeholders.
Outcome
The client was able to layer existing supply onto detailed maps of potential target markets, enabling them to make and defend evidence-based investment – now and in the future.
Want to learn more?
Our full report on workforce and demographic planning for retirement living and aged care is free to read. 'Caring for an Ageing Australia' contains real data and case studies you can apply today.
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