GOVERNMENT TOOLS
business
CONSULTING
Faster Aged Care Site Decisions With Catchment-Based Forecasting
Key highlights
The Client
A national aged care provider assessing multiple sites for investment approval
Their Challenge
Fast, board-defensible analysis with granular forecasting for the 70+ cohort across competing site options
The approach
Tailored catchments (not best fit suburbs), age-based demand forecasts, supply mapping and workforce feasibility in one consistent narrative
Results
A board-ready site assessment pack that quantified baseline supply, demand drivers and workforce risk to support investment decision-making.
The takeaway
When an organisation has several sites competing for capital, speed matters - but only if the evidence is consistent and defensible.
We helped a national aged care provider build confidence with finance and board stakeholders by starting with a realistic catchment, then connecting demand, supply and workforce feasibility into one clear story.
The Question
Our client had several investment priorities needing internal approval.
They needed to convince a finance team and board that each proposed site was grounded in:
- credible local demand for older cohorts (especially 70+)
- a transparent view of current and future bed requirements
- operational feasibility, including workforce availability
They wanted to understand:
- What does the site’s true catchment look like for aged care demand - and how is that catchment ageing over time?
- How does future bed requirement stack up against current supply and any visible pipeline risk?
- Is workforce supply likely to support safe delivery, or does it add material risk to the investment case?
The Approach
We delivered a pilot site assessment designed to be replicated across additional locations using the same structure and assumptions, so comparisons are fair and decisions are faster.
1) Catchment definition (precise catchment, not based on suburb best fit)
We defined a precise catchment around the nominated site and built it using SA1 geographies.
This avoided the usual trap of relying on a single suburb boundary that rarely matches how families choose facilities.
2) Demand forecasting focused on older cohorts
Using our proprietary hyper-local population forecasts, we modelled population change by age and translated that into indicative bed requirements using:
- the 2024 Australian average benchmark, and
- previous ACAR formulas as a comparative benchmark
3) Supply baseline and pipeline check
We established a clear starting point for supply inside the catchment – including the number of services and total beds – and checked for proposed new centres or extensions where pipeline information was available.
4) Workforce feasibility (trend and reachability)
We profiled the local aged care workforce and made two things explicit for decision-makers:
- trend risk: local resident aged care workforce size and recent change over time, and
- reachability: where workers live and the distances they already travel.
This enabled assessment of:
- demand depth for 70+ cohorts
- indicative bed requirements under more than one benchmark
- current supply baseline and pipeline risk, and
- workforce capacity and commuting realities.
Key Insights
- ‘Start with catchment’ made the finance conversation cleaner: The precise catchment meant the numbers reflected a plausible market, reducing debate about geography and keeping stakeholders focused on the investment decision.
- A clear supply baseline stopped guesswork: With aged care bed supply and the facility mix documented, decision-makers could anchor the business case in ‘what exists now’ before debating growth strategy.
- Workforce risk needed to be priced into the decision, not discovered later: The quantified decline in the local aged care workforce was important context for feasibility, commissioning and partnering discussions.
- Commuting patterns helped translate workforce from abstract to actionable: Understanding that most workers already live within a practical commuting range helped the client think about attraction levers, rostering and where to focus recruitment effort.
Future Outlook
The pilot was designed to scale. The client’s next step was to apply the same methodology across additional prioritised sites to create consistent, comparable packs for the next round of board decisions. Over time, this can evolve into a faster ‘forecast-only’ pathway when speed is critical and a standard template that reduces effort per site while improving comparability.
Impact
- Improved decision confidence by connecting catchment, demand, supply and workforce into one board-ready narrative
- Reduced rework by establishing a consistent structure and assumptions suitable for comparing multiple sites
- Surfaced delivery risk early by quantifying workforce trend and commuting reachability, enabling better-informed investment conditions and mitigations.
Need Your Own Aged Care Assessment?
Need your own aged care site assessment?
If your team is weighing up several sites and needs a fast, consistent view of demand, supply and workforce to take to finance and the board, we can help you build an evidence pack that’s clear, defensible and designed for decisions.
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Explore our report Caring for an Ageing Australia first